This study develops a reproducible method for estimating the cost-efficient flexibility potential of a local or regional energy system. Future scenarios that achieve ambitious climate targets and estimate the cost-efficient flexibility potential of demonstration sites were defined. Flexible potentials for energy system assessment are upscaled from the demonstration sites in Eskilstuna (Sweden) and Lower Austria (Austria). For example, Eskilstuna uses the building-stock model ECCABS and the TIMESCity-heat model for upscaling, whereas Lower Austria uses the Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model, the BALMORAL power system model, and the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System energy system modeling tool.
According to the modeling, HPs will dominate Eskilstuna’s heating sector by 2040. Building rehabilitation reduces energy use in Lower Austria, where residential fossil fuel use ends in 2040. Heat pumps and district heating are critical for future heat demand. These findings are explained by the postulated technological-economic parameters, energy prices, and CO2 prices. We conclude that future electricity prices will determine future heating systems: either a high share of centralized heat pumps (low electricity prices) or a high share of combined heat-and-power (high electricity prices). Large-scale energy storage may be crucial. Furthermore, district heating companies have demand-side flexibility, but centralized flexible systems are the most cost effective.
There are many ways to integrate components (renewable energy sources, storages and energy efficient buildings) into a sustainable district or city and various corresponding urban strategies. However, the best solution is not always straightforward, and simulation tools are needed to select the optimal design according to specific criteria. The objective of the CITYOPT project is to create tools to support planning, designing and operating sustainable energy solutions in cities. In particular, the CITYOPT planning tool will support simulating, optimizing and analyzing various city planning alternatives. This holistic approach will integrate, among others, energy dynamics of local grids, buildings and consumption behavior and patterns, energy storages, and local energy production using renewables. The results from test use of the tool are presented alongside with business models for the case areas. For the Vienna case, the CITYOPT planning tool will allow to assess different possible designs for an industrial waste heat-based micro district heating network, supplying low-energy buildings. Existing renewable energy solutions and thermal storages (long and short term) are also considered. The Helsinki case consists of electricity storage solution planned in Kalasatama district and a combination of sustainable heating solutions planned for the Östersundom district.
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