Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

To characterize natural selection, various analytical methods for detecting candidate genomic regions have been developed. We propose to perform genome-wide scans of natural selection using principal component analysis (PCA). We show that the common FST index of genetic differentiation between populations can be viewed as the proportion of variance explained by the principal components. Considering the correlations between genetic variants and each principal component provides a conceptual framework to detect genetic variants involved in local adaptation without any prior definition of populations. To validate the PCA-based approach, we consider the 1000 Genomes data (phase 1) considering 850 individuals coming from Africa, Asia, and Europe. The number of genetic variants is of the order of 36 millions obtained with a low-coverage sequencing depth (3×). The correlations between genetic variation and each principal component provide well-known targets for positive selection (EDAR, SLC24A5, SLC45A2, DARC), and also new candidate genes (APPBPP2, TP1A1, RTTN, KCNMA, MYO5C) and noncoding RNAs. In addition to identifying genes involved in biological adaptation, we identify two biological pathways involved in polygenic adaptation that are related to the innate immune system (beta defensins) and to lipid metabolism (fatty acid omega oxidation). An additional analysis of European data shows that a genome scan based on PCA retrieves classical examples of local adaptation even when there are no well-defined populations. PCA-based statistics, implemented in the PCAdapt R package and the PCAdapt fast open-source software, retrieve well-known signals of human adaptation, which is encouraging for future whole-genome sequencing project, especially when defining populations is difficult.

There is a considerable impetus in population genomics to pinpoint loci involved in local adaptation. A powerful approach to find genomic regions subject to local adaptation is to genotype numerous molecular markers and look for outlier loci. One of the most common approaches for selection scans is based on statistics that measure population differentiation such as FST. However, there are important caveats with approaches related to FST because they require grouping individuals into populations and they additionally assume a particular model of population structure. Here, we implement a more flexible individual-based approach based on Bayesian factor models. Factor models capture population structure with latent variables called factors, which can describe clustering of individuals into populations or isolation-by-distance patterns. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, we both infer population structure and identify outlier loci that are candidates for local adaptation. In order to identify outlier loci, the hierarchical factor model searches for loci that are atypically related to population structure as measured by the latent factors. In a model of population divergence, we show that it can achieve a 2-fold or more reduction of false discovery rate compared with the software BayeScan or with an FST approach. We show that our software can handle large data sets by analyzing the single nucleotide polymorphisms of the Human Genome Diversity Project. The Bayesian factor model is implemented in the open-source PCAdapt software.

The difficulties arising from association analysis with rare variants underline the importance of suitable reference population cohorts, which integrate detailed spatial information. We analyzed a sample of 1684 individuals from Western France, who were genotyped at genome-wide level, from two cohorts D.E.S.I.R and CavsGen. We found that fine-scale population structure occurs at the scale of Western France, with distinct admixture proportions for individuals originating from the Brittany Region and the Vendé e Department. Genetic differentiation increases with distance at a high rate in these two parts of Northwestern France and linkage disequilibrium is higher in Brittany suggesting a lower effective population size. When looking for genomic regions informative about Breton origin, we found two prominent associated regions that include the lactase region and the HLA complex. For both the lactase and the HLA regions, there is a low differentiation between Bretons and Irish, and this is also found at the genome-wide level. At a more refined scale, and within the Pays de la Loire Region, we also found evidence of fine-scale population structure, although principal component analysis showed that individuals from different departments cannot be confidently discriminated. Because of the evidence for fine-scale genetic structure in Western France, we anticipate that rare and geographically localized variants will be identified in future full-sequence analyses.

Patterns of isolation-by-distance (IBD) arise when population differentiation increases with increasing geographic distances. Patterns of IBD are usually caused by local spatial dispersal, which explains why differences of allele frequencies between populations accumulate with distance. However, spatial variations of demographic parameters such as migration rate or population density can generate nonstationary patterns of IBD where the rate at which genetic differentiation accumulates varies across space. To characterize nonstationary patterns of IBD, we infer local genetic differentiation based on Bayesian kriging. Local genetic differentiation for a sampled population is defined as the average genetic differentiation between the sampled population and fictive neighboring populations. To avoid defining populations in advance, the method can also be applied at the scale of individuals making it relevant for landscape genetics. Inference of local genetic differentiation relies on a matrix of pairwise similarity or dissimilarity between populations or individuals such as matrices of FST between pairs of populations. Simulation studies show that maps of local genetic differentiation can reveal barriers to gene flow but also other patterns such as continuous variations of gene flow across habitat. The potential of the method is illustrated with two datasets: single nucleotide polymorphisms from human Swedish populations and dominant markers for alpine plant species.

4With the great advances in ancient DNA extraction, population genetics 5 data are now made of geographically separated individuals from both present 6 and ancient times. However, population genetics theory about the joint ef-7 fect of space and time has not been thoroughly studied. Based on the clas-8 sical stepping-stone model, we develop the theory of Isolation by Distance 9 and Time. We derive the correlation of allele frequencies between demes 10 in the case where ancient samples are present in the data, and investigate 11 the impact of edge effects with forward-in-time simulations. We also derive 12 results about coalescent times in circular/toroidal models. As one of the 13 most common way to investigate population structure is to apply principal 14 component analysis, we evaluate the impact of this theory on plots of prin-15 cipal components. Our results demonstrate that time between samples is a 16 non-negligible factor that requires new attention in population genetics.

With the great advances in ancient DNA extraction, genetic data are now obtained from geographically separated individuals from both present and past. However, population genetics theory about the joint effect of space and time has not been thoroughly studied. Based on the classical stepping–stone model, we develop the theory of Isolation by Distance and Time. We derive the correlation of allele frequencies between demes in the case where ancient samples are present, and investigate the impact of edge effects with forward–in–time simulations. We also derive results about coalescent times in circular and toroidal models. As one of the most common ways to investigate population structure is principal components analysis (PCA), we evaluate the impact of our theory on PCA plots. Our results demonstrate that time between samples is an important factor. Ancient samples tend to be drawn to the center of a PCA plot.

BackgroundIn ecology and forensics, some population assignment techniques use molecular markers to assign individuals to known groups. However, assigning individuals to known populations can be difficult if the level of genetic differentiation among populations is small. Most assignment studies handle independent markers, often by pruning markers in Linkage Disequilibrium (LD), ignoring the information contained in the correlation among markers due to LD.ResultsTo improve the accuracy of population assignment, we present an algorithm, implemented in the HaploPOP software, that combines markers into haplotypes, without requiring independence. The algorithm is based on the Gain of Informativeness for Assignment that provides a measure to decide if a pair of markers should be combined into haplotypes, or not, in order to improve assignment. Because complete exploration of all possible solutions for constructing haplotypes is computationally prohibitive, our approach uses a greedy algorithm based on windows of fixed sizes. We evaluate the performance of HaploPOP to assign individuals to populations using a split-validation approach. We investigate both simulated SNPs data and dense genotype data from individuals from Spain and Portugal.ConclusionsOur results show that constructing haplotypes with HaploPOP can substantially reduce assignment error. The HaploPOP software is freely available as a command-line software at www.ieg.uu.se/Jakobsson/software/HaploPOP/.