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Dynamic models with parameters that are allowed to depend on the state of a hidden Markov chain have become a popular tool for modelling time series subject to changes in regime. An important question that arises in applications involving such models is how to determine the number of states required for the model to be an adequate characterization of the observed data. In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative procedures that can be used to determine the state dimension of a Markovswitching autoregressive model. These include procedures that exploit the ARMA representation which Markov-switching processes admit, as well as procedures that are based on optimization of complexity-penalized likelihood measures. Our Monte Carlo analysis reveals that such procedures estimate the state dimension correctly, provided that the parameter changes are not too small and the hidden Markov chain is fairly persistent. The use of the various methods is also illustrated by means of empirical examples.

___________________________________________________________________________ AbstractThis paper examines global (mature market) and regional (emerging market) spillovers in local emerging stock markets. Tri-variate VAR GARCH(1,1)-in-mean models are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs) in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. The models capture a range of possible transmission channels: spillovers in mean returns, volatility, and cross-market GARCH-in-mean effects. Hypotheses about the importance of different channels are tested. The results suggest that spillovers from regional and global markets are present in the vast majority of EMEs. However, the nature of crossmarket linkages varies across countries and regions. While spillovers in mean returns dominate in emerging Asia and Latin America, spillovers in variance appear to play a key role in emerging Europe. There is also some evidence of cross-market GARCH-in-mean effects. The relative importance of regional and global spillovers varies too, with global spillovers dominating in Asia, and regional spillovers in Latin America and the Middle East. JEL classifications: F30; G15

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This paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of net portfolio flows, namely net equity and net bond flows, as well as their dynamic linkages. Specifically, a bivariate VAR GARCH-BEKK-in-mean model is estimated using bilateral monthly data for the US vis-à-vis Australia, Canada, the euro area, Japan, Sweden, and the UK over the period 1988:01-2011:12. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on net equity flows is negative in the euro area, the UK and Sweden, and positive in Australia. The impact on net bond flows is also negative in all countries except Canada, where it is positive.Under the assumption of risk aversion, the findings suggest that exchange rate uncertainty induces a home bias and causes investors to reduce their financial activities to maximise returns and minimise exposure to uncertainty, this effect being stronger in the UK, the euro area and Sweden compared to Canada, Australia and Japan. Overall, the results indicate that exchange rate or credit controls on these flows can be used as a policy tool in countries with strong uncertainty effects to pursue economic and financial stability. AbstractThis paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of net portfolio flows, namely net equity and net bond flows, as well as their dynamic linkages. Specifically, a bivariate VAR GARCH-BEKK-in-mean model is estimated using bilateral monthly data for the US vis-à-vis Australia, Canada, the euro area, Japan, Sweden, and the UK over the period 1988:01-2011:12. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on net equity flows is negative in the euro area, the UK and Sweden, and positive in Australia. The impact on net bond flows is also negative in all countries except Canada, where it is positive.Under the assumption of risk aversion, the findings suggest that exchange rate uncertainty induces a home bias and causes investors to reduce their financial activities to maximise returns and minimise exposure to uncertainty, this effect being stronger in the UK, the euro area and Sweden compared to Canada, Australia and Japan. Overall, the results indicate that exchange rate or credit controls on these flows can be used as a policy tool in countries with strong uncertainty effects to pursue economic and financial stability.

In this paper we provide some empirical evidence on the casual relationship between stock prices and exchange rates volatility in four East Asian countries. In order to test for causality-in-variance, we use a GARCH model for which a BEKK representation is adopted, and then test for the relevant zero restrictions on the conditional variance parameters. We find that in the pre-crisis sample stock prices lead exchange rates negatively in Japan and South Korea (consistently with the portfolio approach) and positively in Indonesia and Thailand. In the latter two countries after the onset of the 1997 East Asian crisis the spillover effects are found to be bidirectional.