We developed a method to predict the potential of non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna) to establish populations. This method may inform efforts to prevent the introduction of invasive non-native species. We used boosted regression trees to determine whether nine variables influence establishment success of introduced herpetofauna in California and Florida. We used an independent data set to assess model performance. Propagule pressure was the variable most strongly associated with establishment success. Species with short juvenile periods and species with phylogenetically more distant relatives in regional biotas were more likely to establish than species that start breeding later and those that have close relatives. Average climate match (the similarity of climate between native and non-native range) and life form were also important. Frogs and lizards were the taxonomic groups most likely to establish, whereas a much lower proportion of snakes and turtles established. We used results from our best model to compile a spreadsheet-based model for easy use and interpretation. Probability scores obtained from the spreadsheet model were strongly correlated with establishment success as were probabilities predicted for independent data by the boosted regression tree model. However, the error rate for predictions made with independent data was much higher than with cross validation using training data. This difference in predictive power does not preclude use of the model to assess the probability of establishment of herpetofauna because (1) the independent data had no information for two variables (meaning the full predictive capacity of the model could not be realized) and (2) the model structure is consistent with the recent literature on the primary determinants of establishment success for herpetofauna. It may still be difficult to predict the establishment probability of poorly studied taxa, but it is clear that non-native species (especially lizards and frogs) that mature early and come from environments similar to that of the introduction region have the highest probability of establishment.

Air temperatures have increased globally over the past decades, while rainfall changes have been more variable, but are taking place. In South Africa, substantial climate-related impacts are predicted, and protected area management agencies will need to respond actively to impacts. It is critical for management agencies to understand the way in which climate is changing locally to predict impacts and respond appropriately. Here, for the first time, we quantify observable changes in temperature and rainfall in South African national parks over the past five to ten decades. Our results show significant increases in temperatures in most parks, with increases being most rapid in the arid regions of the country. Increases in the frequency of extreme high temperature events were also most pronounced in these regions. These results are consistent with other climate studies conducted in these areas. Similar increases were identified for both minimum and maximum temperatures, though absolute minimum temperatures increased at greater rates than absolute maxima. Overall, rainfall trends were less obvious, but a decrease in rainfall was observed for the southern Cape (in three parks), and an increase was detected in one park. The observed temperature changes over the last 20-50 years have in several instances already reached those predicted for near future scenarios (2035), indicating that change scenarios are conservative. These results provide individual parks with evidence-based direction for managing impacts under current and projected changes in local climate. They also provide the management agency with sub-regional information to tailor policy and impact monitoring. Importantly, our results highlight the critical role that individual weather stations play in informing local land management and the concerns for parks that have no local information on changes in climate.

The global trade in reptiles for pets has grown rapidly in recent decades. Some species introduced by the pet trade have established and become invasive, for example the Burmese python in Florida. Although there are currently no invasive alien reptiles in South Africa, the last 30 years has seen an exponential increase in the number of introductions of an increasing number of species from an increasing number of countries. We determine and analyse the presence and abundance of species in the South African reptile trade. This serves as a background to efforts to overhaul the management and regulation of this trade, particularly given the need for increasingly objective risk-assessment protocols. We show that introduced species tend to come from specific families including Boidae, Chameleonidae, Elapidae, Pythonidae, Testudinidae and Viperidae. Moreover, within specific families (e.g. chameleons), species of larger body size are more likely to be introduced. As the risk of a species becoming invasive may be increased by higher propagule pressure, it is also important to characterize the volume of trade. Here we analyse data on the abundance of reptiles in South Africa using generalized, additive models and show that venomous and expensive species are traded in low numbers, whereas species that are easy to breed and handle or are large, colourful or patterned are preferred. These human imposed preferences have the potential to cause significant taxonomic changes to the reptile fauna of South Africa, which still largely reflects natural biogeographic and evolutionary processes. Elucidation of import and trade patterns enables us to estimate the probable propagule pressure of any particular species. Because the dispersal pathway defined by trade influences the likelihood of invasion, this information is important for informing policy development and directing management efforts.