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The majority of estuaries along the coastline of southern Africa are termed temporarily open/closed estuaries (TOCEs) and are closed off from the sea for varying periods by a sandbar which forms at the mouth. It is therefore important to understand the processes occurring within TOCEs and their importance to fishes in order to make sound management recommendations. Estuaries along the coast of South Africa and their associated fish assemblages are biogeographically distinct and occur in either a subtropical, warm-temperate or cooltemperate zone. There are 125 TOCEs found within the cool-temperate and warm-temperate zones. Most fish species found in TOCEs are the juveniles of marine taxa that breed at sea. Permanently open estuaries generally have a higher diversity of species than TOCEs, but TOCEs still provide important nursery areas for many marine species and numerically often have a higher proportion of estuarine resident species. Important taxa in terms of abundance and biomass in warm-temperate TOCEs include the sparids Rhabdosargus holubi and Lithognathus lithognathus, several mugilid species, estuarine residents (particularly Gilchristella aestuaria and Atherina breviceps) and the freshwater cichlid Oreochromis mossambicus. The diversity of fishes in cool-temperate TOCEs is low when compared with warm-temperate systems and Liza richardsonii tends to dominate catches by number and mass in most systems. Several species recorded in TOCEs show clear longitudinal distribution trends. For example Atherina breviceps is generally more abundant in the lower reaches of estuaries. Mouth state, particularly the frequency, timing and duration of mouth opening plays a key role in determining species richness, composition, diversity and abundance in TOCEs. Mouth state is directly linked to freshwater input. Reduced river inflow leads to prolonged mouth closure and shorter open phases, which inhibits immigration and emigration of marine fish species between estuaries and the sea. Understanding of the effects of various processes occurring within these systems, particularly variation in freshwater input, on the biota of these important systems facilitates the development of informed management recommendations.

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For nearly three decades, the Whitfield (1992) characterisation scheme served as a reference framework to type South African estuaries. We outline a revised ecosystem classification scheme that incorporates biogeographical zonation and introduces new types. Coastal outlets were re-categorised as estuaries or micro-systems. For functional estuaries, the Estuarine Lakes, Estuarine Bays and Predominantly Open Estuary types were largely retained. New types are Estuarine Lagoons and Arid Predominantly Closed Estuaries. The numerically dominant, temporarily open/closed category was subdivided into Small and Large Temporarily Closed Estuaries, with a total habitat area of 15 ha, serving as threshold separating these two subdivisions. River mouths were renamed Fluvially Dominated Estuaries and divided into large and small size categories to reflect dissimilar catchment influences. Micro-systems were separated into micro-estuaries, micro-outlets, and waterfalls. South Africa's 290 estuaries were classified into 22 estuarine ecosystem categories arising from nine estuary types occurring across four biogeographical zones. In addition, 202 micro-systems were classified into nine ecosystem types, of which only the micro-estuaries (42) share possible functionality with estuaries. Estuaries subjected to functional shifts were also identified. The classification system provides a framework that integrates biogeography and the range of biophysical parameters evident in South Africa, and can be used for red listing of ecosystem types and determining estuarine sensitivity to pressures.

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The distributions of ectothermic marine organisms are limited to temperature ranges and oxygen conditions that support aerobic respiration, quantified within the metabolic index (ϕ) as the ratio of oxygen supply to metabolic oxygen demand. However, the utility of ϕ at local scales and across heterogenous environments is unknown; yet, these scales are often where actionable management decisions are made. Here, we test if ϕ can delimit the entire distribution of marine organisms when calibrated across an appropriate temperature range and at local scales (~10 km) using the endemic reef fish, Chrysoblephus laticeps, which is found in the highly heterogenous temperature and oxygen environment along the South African coastal zone, as a model species. In laboratory experiments, we find a bidirectional (at 12°C) hypoxia tolerance response across the temperature range tested (8 to 24°C), permitting a piecewise calibration of ϕ. We then project this calibrated ϕ model through temperature and oxygen data from a high spatial resolution (11 to 13 km) ocean model for the periods 2005 to 2009 and 2095 to 2099 to quantify various magnitudes of ϕ across space and time paired with complementary C. laticeps occurrence points. Using random forest species distribution models, we quantify a critical ϕ value of 2.78 below which C. laticeps cannot persist and predict current and future distributions of C. laticeps in line with already observed distribution shifts of other South African marine species. Overall, we find that C. laticeps’ distribution is limited by increasing temperatures towards its warm edge but by low oxygen availability towards its cool edge, which is captured within ϕ at fine scales and across heterogenous oxygen and temperature combinations. Our results support the application of ϕ for generating local- and regional-scale predictions of climate change effects on organisms that can inform local conservation management decisions.