We compute AM-FM models for infrared video frames depicting military targets immersed in structured clutter backgrounds. We show that independent correlation based detection processes can be implemented in the pixel and modulation domains and used to construct useful online track consistency checks that indicate when the detection process has been degraded due to nonstationary evolution of the target signature. Throughout the paper, we use the well-known AMCOM closure sequences as exemplars.
Video surveillance systems have become a key element in efforts by security services, the military and law enforcement to counterterrorism since the attacks of 11 September 2001. Primarily involving closed circuit television, collected using a variety of hardware platforms and software algorithms, systematic imagery analysis has typically been used as a tool for post-event forensics to identify tactics, techniques and perpetrators of terrorist attacks. Advanced video surveillance applied to detecting suspicious behaviours embedded in crowd signatures can also be a powerful tool for pre-event deterrence. In this article, we examine case studies of attempts by terrorists to target civilians and create mass casualty incidents and evaluate existing behaviour detection algorithms with the goal of elucidating links between potential threats indicated by suspicious behaviours and possible deterrent mechanisms based on video surveillance.
Objective
This article analyzes the operational dynamics of Boko Haram, the largest radical Islamist organization engaged in acts of terrorism in Nigeria.
Method
We analyze Boko Haram's terrorist campaign using information gathered from 1,086 successful attacks that occurred between July 2009 and December 2014. We examine the operational tempo of attacks on a monthly basis, identify the primary tactics employed in and targets of those attacks, and assess the outcome of each successful attack in terms of severity metrics.
Results
We find that despite leadership changes, Boko Haram has increased the frequency of attacks, gained international media attention, and continues to pose a serious threat to security in West Africa.
Conclusions
The analysis provides a series of insights into why Boko Haram was able to complete a leadership succession and achieve this success after its initial defeat despite internal and external factors that have undermined prior terrorist campaigns. Consequently, unless the internal and/or external dynamics are altered, Boko Haram is likely to continue to conduct attacks and remain a serious threat to Nigeria and to the security of adjoining countries in West Africa.
In this article we estimate the influence of leadership changes on the operational dynamics associated with terrorist attacks conducted by the Islamic State and its predecessors. Because the focus of our research is empirical, the study uses data for 2,131 successful attacks between October 2002 and December 2014 to examine differentials in operational tempo, attack severity, primary tactics employed, and principal targets. The data are aggregated on a monthly basis to estimate the probabilities associated with specific attack sequences in terms of the following primary tactics: (1) firearms, (2) explosives, (3) hostage-taking/kidnapping, and (4) attacks involving combinations of (1), (2), and/or (3). The analysis is placed in a broad historical and strategic context in order to explore two key issues: (1) The effect of leadership change on terrorist group activity and (2) The implications for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency efforts. Our analysis reveals a myriad of conceptual, theoretical, and policy implications.
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