Coral reefs are among the most diverse and iconic ecosystems on Earth, but a range of anthropogenic pressures are threatening their persistence. Owing to their remoteness, broad spatial coverage and cross-jurisdictional locations, there are no high-resolution remotely sensed maps available at the global scale. Here we present a framework that is capable of mapping coral reef habitats from individual reefs (~200 km 2) to entire barrier reef systems (200 000 km 2) and across vast ocean extents (>6 000 000 km 2). This is the first time this has been demonstrated using a consistent and transparent remote sensing mapping framework. The ten maps that we present achieved good accuracy (78% mean overall accuracy) from multiple input image datasets and training data sources, and our framework was shown to be adaptable to either benthic or geomorphic reef features and across diverse coral reef environments. These new generation high-resolution map data will be useful for supporting ecosystem risk assessments, detecting change in ecosystem dynamics and targeting efforts to monitor local-scale changes in coral cover and reef health.

Most reef-building corals in the order Scleractinia depend on endosymbiotic algae in the genus Symbiodinium for energy and survival. Significant levels of taxonomic diversity in both partners result in numerous possible combinations of coral-Symbiodinium associations with unique functional characteristics. We created and analyzed the first coral-Symbiodinium networks utilizing a global dataset of interaction records from coral reefs in the tropical Indo-Pacific and Atlantic Oceans for 1991 to 2010. Our meta-analysis reveals that the majority of coral species and Symbiodinium types are specialists, but failed to detect any one-to-one obligate relationships. Symbiont specificity is correlated with a host’s transmission mode, with horizontally transmitting corals being more likely to interact with generalist symbionts. Globally, Symbiodinium types tend to interact with only vertically or horizontally transmitting corals, and only a few generalist types are found with both. Our results demonstrate a strong correlation between symbiont specificity, symbiont transmission mode, and community partitioning. The structure and dynamics of these network interactions underlie the fundamental biological partnership that determines the condition and resilience of coral reef ecosystems.

The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.

Climate change has the potential to desynchronize the phenologies of interdependent species, with potentially catastrophic effects on mutualist populations. Phenologies can evolve, but the role of evolution in the response of mutualisms to climate change is poorly understood. We developed a model that explicitly considers both the evolution and the population dynamics of a plant–pollinator mutualism under climate change. How the populations evolve, and thus whether the populations and the mutualism persist, depends not only on the rate of climate change but also on the densities and phenologies of other species in the community. Abundant alternative mutualist partners with broad temporal distributions can make a mutualism more robust to climate change, while abundant alternative partners with narrow temporal distributions can make a mutualism less robust. How community composition and the rate of climate change affect the persistence of mutualisms is mediated by two-species Allee thresholds. Understanding these thresholds will help researchers to identify those mutualisms at highest risk owing to climate change.

Community-level resilience depends on the interaction between multiple populations that vary in individual responses to disturbance. For example, in tropical reefs, some corals can survive higher stress (resistance) while others exhibit faster recovery (engineering resilience) following disturbances such as thermal stress. While each type will negatively affect the other through competition, each might also benefit the other by reducing the potential for an additional competitor such as macroalgae to invade after a disturbance. To determine how community composition affects ecological resilience, we modeled coral-macroalgae interactions given either a resistant coral, a resilient coral, or both together. Having both coral types (i.e., response diversity) can lead to observable enhanced ecological resilience if (1) the resilient coral is not a superior competitor and (2) disturbance levels are high enough such that the resilient coral would collapse when considered alone. This enhanced resilience occurs through competitor-enabled rescue where each coral increases the potential for the other to recover from disturbance through external recruitment, such that both corals benefit from the presence of each other in terms of total cover and resilience. Therefore, conservation management aimed at protecting resilience under global change requires consideration of both diversity and connectivity between sites experiencing differential disturbance.