The impact of development on the ecological environment is a matter of concern, especially in the ecologically fragile agro-pastoral ecotone. The agro-pastoral ecotone of northern Shaanxi (ANS) is a representative region of the agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China. The agricultural use of sand land (AUSL) is an effective way to respond to the development needs of this region. The AUSL will certainly have an impact on water yield services in the ANS, where water resources are already scarce. In this study, the Integration Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Tool (InVEST) model was used to simulate the water yield of the ANS under different intensity scenarios of AUSL. The results showed that AUSL reduces the regional water yield, but the impact is limited. At the maximum scale of development, the total regional water yield decreased by 1.35% compared to the base year of 2020. In terms of distribution pattern, water yield decreased the most in Yuyang District and the least in Fugu County due to the uneven distribution of sand land. At the land use and land cover (LULC) scale, the AUSL has a diminishing effect on the water yield of both cultivated land and sand land due to the more intense evapotranspiration from cropland. This study can provide data and decision support for the ANS region for building the resource-economical and environment-friendly society.
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