The Cao Vit Gibbon (Nomascus nasutus) is a critically endangered species of gibbon that was historically wide-ranging but is now known to occupy only one forest patch that straddles the China-Vietnam border. While past and current threats to the species include poaching and habitat destruction, the potential effects of global climate change on this species and its current habitat are still poorly known. Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) is often used to predict the risk of potential species distribution shifts in response to climate change and inform conservation planning including restoration and reintroduction efforts. Here, we present optimally tuned SDMs to predict climatically suitable habitat for N. nasutus, projected under a range of future climate change scenarios. Our SDMs showed high predictive performance and successfully predicted the current known range, but also showed expected areas of overprediction to a much wider area that likely reflects the historical distribution of the Cao Vit Gibbon across southern China and northern Vietnam. SDMs that projected across a range of future scenarios estimated an overall loss in total area of climatically suitable habitat, with the average value of about -23,000 km 2 in 2041 -2060 period and about -25,000 km 2 in 2061 -2080 period, compared to Highlights• For species with a very small population such as the critically endangered Cao Vit Gibbon, climate change presents a potentially severe threat to its long-term conservation in synergy with other direct threats such as habitat loss and poaching.• Planning for habitat restoration and population re-establishment efforts for critically endangered species should take into consideration future climatic suitability.• Cross-border partnerships are essential for conservation management of critically endangered species under climate change.• Species distribution models for the critically endangered Cao Vit Gibbon suggest its current occupied area will remain climatically suitable into the future, and while the total area of climatically suitable habitat in the future is highly likely to decrease overall, we reveal potential sites for habitat restoration and population re-establishment.
The Southern Yellow-cheeked Gibbon (Nomascus gabriellae) is an endangered species found only in a small region of Indochina, and its populations have declined in most known sites. In this study, we use Maxent, a robust and widely used species distribution modeling approach, to predict the current and future distributions of the Southern Yellow-cheeked Gibbon over its entire range based on an extensive review of published records. In total, we compile and provide a comprehensive set of known distribution records of the species from Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. The model results show that N. gabriellae potentially occurs in much of area around the Central Highlands in both Vietnam and Cambodia sides and the southern end of Laos. Our study suggests that protected areas in this region will play a key role in conservation actions for the gibbons. In addition, the distribution of the gibbon in future climate conditions, even in the best-case scenario, is likely to shrink significantly, as the species would have to move upwards to higher elevations. Under such impact, the populations will become more fragmented and restricted to a few areas with higher elevations. Our study also confirms that the climatic difference in distribution ranges may not be fully responsible for the speciation and biogeography of the N. annamensis/gabriellae complex.
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