In this study, sensitivities of the track and intensity forecasts of Typhoon Megi (2010) to the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) University of Wisconsin satellite atmospheric motion vector (AMV) dataset are examined. Assimilation of the CIMSS AMV dataset using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model shows that the AMV data can significantly improve the track forecast of Typhoon Megi, especially the sharp turn from westnorthwest to north after crossing the Philippines. By broadening the western Pacific subtropical high to the west, the AMV data can help reduce the eastward bias of the track, thus steering the storm away inimical shear environment and facilitating its subsequent development.Further sensitivity experiments with separated assimilation of the low-to midlevel (800-300 hPa) and upper-level (300-100 hPa) AMV winds reveal that, despite the sparse distribution of the low-level AMV winds with most of the data points located in the periphery of Megi's main circulation, the track forecasts tend to be more sensitive to the low-level than to the upper-level wind observations. This indicates that the far-field low-level observations can improve the large-scale environmental flow that storms are to move in, giving rise to a better representation of the steering flow and subsequent intensity change. While much of the recent effort in tropical cyclone research focuses on inner-core observations to improve the intensity forecast, the results in this study show that the peripheral observations outside the storm center could contribute considerably to the intensity and track forecasts and deserve attention for better typhoon forecast skills.
From 24 to 26 November 2004, an extreme heavy rainfall event occurred in the mountainous provinces of central Vietnam, resulting in severe flooding along local rivers. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, version 4.4, is used to simulate this event. In the present study, the convective parameterization scheme includes the original Kain-Fritsch scheme and a modified one in which a new diagnostic equation to compute updraft velocity, closure assumption, and trigger function are developed. These modifications take the vertical gradient of the Exner function perturbation into account, with an on-off coefficient to account for the role of the advective terms. According to the event simulations, the simulated precipitation shows that the modified scheme with the new trigger function gives much better results than the original one. Moreover, the interaction between convection and the larger-scale environment is much stronger near the midtroposphere where the return flow associated with lower-level winter monsoon originates. As a result, the modified scheme produces larger and deeper stratiform clouds and leads to a significant amount of resolvable precipitation. On the contrary, the resolvable precipitation is small when the original scheme is used. The improvement in the simulated precipitation is caused by a more explicit physical mechanism of the new trigger function and suggests that the trigger function needs to be developed along with other components of the scheme, such as closure assumption and cloud model, as a whole. The formalistic inclusion of the advective terms in the new equation gives almost no additional improvement of the simulated precipitation.
The present study explores the characteristics of the 20–60-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the 29-yr observed rainfall in north Vietnam (NVN), central Vietnam (CVN), and south Vietnam (SVN) in rainy seasons. Composite analyses reveal that the 20–60-day ISO in NVN accompanies dual vortices straddling Taiwan, which alternately favor and suppress convection extending from the northern Philippines to NVN. The wet phase in CVN coincides with convergence of northerly and easterly winds over the region. The large-scale pattern governing the 20–60-day ISO in SVN resembles the characteristics of the boreal summer ISO (BSISO). Conditionally unstable anomalies are observed within anomalous anticyclones where the moisture flux diverges out during the dry phase in NVN and SVN, and vice versa. Such anomalies prevent the existence of the anticyclones and finally replace them with anomalous cyclones to start the wet phase. The unstable anomalies could result from descending motion that increases the boundary layer temperature due to adiabatic compression of air. Conversely, boundary layer cooling due to evaporation of rain and interception of solar radiation by clouds produces stable anomalies. The unstable anomalies, moisture flux convergence, and vertical motions shift northward from the convection maximum, leading to the northward propagation of the BSISO convection. The 20–60-day ISO in CVN is not governed by local instability. Vertical cross sections indicate that the ISO in SVN possesses a westward-tilting structure, which is not observed in the NVN and CVN case.
Representative rain gauge stations in north (triangles), central (squares), and south (circles) Vietnam and topography (shaded in meters above mean sea level).
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