Part 2: Knowledge Discovery and SharingInternational audienceThis paper proposes a methodology for analyzing lead time behavior. The method focuses on identifying whether lead times are in fact identically independently distributed (i.i.d.). The method uses a combination of time series analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov’s test for similar distributions and data sampling to arrive at its result. The method is applied to data obtained from a manufacturing company. The conclusions are that while the lead time to customers can for some products be assumed to be i.i.d. this is not uniformly true. Some products’ lead times are in fact neither independently nor identically distributed
Considering a multi-echelon system, the bullwhip effect is recognized as a significant factor with regards to the inventory management. This paper focuses on the effect of stochastic dependent lead time on the bullwhip effect. Simulation based approach is used to quantify the bullwhip effect with different demand and lead time distributions. The experiment results show that the dependent lead time has much effect on the 2 nd echelon (from the downstream to the upstream) and bullwhip effect decrease significantly if the variance of this echelon decreases.
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