The variability of dependable flows for fixed storage is an important parameter that should be incorporated into the economic analysis of a water resource storage project. Flow values representative of the James River were computed by a hydrologic model that uses data randomly generated from monthly precipitation distributions. Dependable flows from fixed storage were found to have large variance. Confidence limits were placed on the dependable flows illustrating the wide range of possible dependable flows for a specified reservoir size, and suggesting the desirability of expressing benefit-cost ratios for water resource projects in terms of confidence limits.
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