BackgroundExternal pilot or feasibility studies can be used to estimate key unknown parameters to inform the design of the definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT). However, there is little consensus on how large pilot studies need to be, and some suggest inflating estimates to adjust for the lack of precision when planning the definitive RCT.MethodsWe use a simulation approach to illustrate the sampling distribution of the standard deviation for continuous outcomes and the event rate for binary outcomes. We present the impact of increasing the pilot sample size on the precision and bias of these estimates, and predicted power under three realistic scenarios. We also illustrate the consequences of using a confidence interval argument to inflate estimates so the required power is achieved with a pre-specified level of confidence. We limit our attention to external pilot and feasibility studies prior to a two-parallel-balanced-group superiority RCT.ResultsFor normally distributed outcomes, the relative gain in precision of the pooled standard deviation (SDp) is less than 10% (for each five subjects added per group) once the total sample size is 70. For true proportions between 0.1 and 0.5, we find the gain in precision for each five subjects added to the pilot sample is less than 5% once the sample size is 60. Adjusting the required sample sizes for the imprecision in the pilot study estimates can result in excessively large definitive RCTs and also requires a pilot sample size of 60 to 90 for the true effect sizes considered here.ConclusionsWe recommend that an external pilot study has at least 70 measured subjects (35 per group) when estimating the SDp for a continuous outcome. If the event rate in an intervention group needs to be estimated by the pilot then a total of 60 to 100 subjects is required. Hence if the primary outcome is binary a total of at least 120 subjects (60 in each group) may be required in the pilot trial. It is very much more efficient to use a larger pilot study, than to guard against the lack of precision by using inflated estimates.

Despite the theoretical evidence of the utility of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for linkage analysis, no whole-genome scans of a complex disease have yet been published to directly compare SNPs with microsatellites. Here, we describe a whole-genome screen of 157 families with multiple cases of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), performed using 11,245 genomewide SNPs. The results were compared with those from a 10-cM microsatellite scan in the same cohort. The SNP analysis detected HLA*DRB1, the major RA susceptibility locus (P=.00004), with a linkage interval of 31 cM, compared with a 50-cM linkage interval detected by the microsatellite scan. In addition, four loci were detected at a nominal significance level (P<.05) in the SNP linkage analysis; these were not observed in the microsatellite scan. We demonstrate that variation in information content was the main factor contributing to observed differences in the two scans, with the SNPs providing significantly higher information content than the microsatellites. Reducing the number of SNPs in the marker set to 3,300 (1-cM spacing) caused several loci to drop below nominal significance levels, suggesting that decreases in information content can have significant effects on linkage results. In contrast, differences in maps employed in the analysis, the low detectable rate of genotyping error, and the presence of moderate linkage disequilibrium between markers did not significantly affect the results. We have demonstrated the utility of a dense SNP map for performing linkage analysis in a late-age-at-onset disease, where DNA from parents is not always available. The high SNP density allows loci to be defined more precisely and provides a partial scaffold for association studies, substantially reducing the resource requirement for gene-mapping studies.

SummaryBackgroundOptimum surgical intervention for low-grade haemorrhoids is unknown. Haemorrhoidal artery ligation (HAL) has been proposed as an efficacious, safe therapy while rubber band ligation (RBL) is a commonly used outpatient treatment. We compared recurrence after HAL versus RBL in patients with grade II–III haemorrhoids.MethodsThis multicentre, open-label, parallel group, randomised controlled trial included patients from 17 acute UK NHS trusts. We screened patients aged 18 years or older presenting with grade II–III haemorrhoids. We excluded patients who had previously received any haemorrhoid surgery, more than one injection treatment for haemorrhoids, or more than one RBL procedure within 3 years before recruitment. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) to either RBL or HAL with Doppler. Randomisation was computer-generated and stratified by centre with blocks of random sizes. Allocation concealment was achieved using a web-based system. The study was open-label with no masking of participants, clinicians, or research staff. The primary outcome was recurrence at 1 year, derived from the patient's self-reported assessment in combination with resource use from their general practitioner and hospital records. Recurrence was analysed in patients who had undergone one of the interventions and been followed up for at least 1 year. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN41394716.FindingsFrom Sept 9, 2012, to May 6, 2014, of 969 patients screened, 185 were randomly assigned to the HAL group and 187 to the RBL group. Of these participants, 337 had primary outcome data (176 in the RBL group and 161 in the HAL group). At 1 year post-procedure, 87 (49%) of 176 patients in the RBL group and 48 (30%) of 161 patients in the HAL group had haemorrhoid recurrence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·23, 95% CI 1·42–3·51; p=0·0005). The main reason for this difference was the number of extra procedures required to achieve improvement (57 [32%] participants in the RBL group and 23 [14%] participants in the HAL group had a subsequent procedure for haemorrhoids). The mean pain 1 day after procedure was 3·4 (SD 2·8) in the RBL group and 4·6 (2·8) in the HAL group (difference −1·2, 95% CI −1·8 to −0·5; p=0·0002); at day 7 the scores were 1·6 (2·3) in the RBL group and 3·1 (2·4) in the HAL group (difference −1·5, −2·0 to −1·0; p<0·0001). Pain scores did not differ between groups at 21 days and 6 weeks. 15 individuals reported serious adverse events requiring hospital admission. One patient in the RBL group had a pre-existing rectal tumour. Of the remaining 14 serious adverse events, 12 (7%) were among participants treated with HAL and two (1%) were in those treated with RBL. Six patients had pain (one treated with RBL, five treated with HAL), three had bleeding not requiring transfusion (one treated with RBL, two treated with HAL), two in the HAL group had urinary retention, two in the HAL group had vasovagal upset, and one in the HAL group had possible sepsis (treated with antibiotics).Interpr...

Objectives-In vitro and animal studies have implicated osteopontin (OPN)