Background:Risk-stratified management of fever with neutropenia (FN), allows intensive management of high-risk cases and early discharge of low-risk cases. No single, internationally validated, prediction model of the risk of adverse outcomes exists for children and young people. An individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was undertaken to devise one.Methods:The ‘Predicting Infectious Complications in Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) collaboration was formed by parent representatives, international clinical and methodological experts. Univariable and multivariable analyses, using random effects logistic regression, were undertaken to derive and internally validate a risk-prediction model for outcomes of episodes of FN based on clinical and laboratory data at presentation.Results:Data came from 22 different study groups from 15 countries, of 5127 episodes of FN in 3504 patients. There were 1070 episodes in 616 patients from seven studies available for multivariable analysis. Univariable analyses showed associations with microbiologically defined infection (MDI) in many items, including higher temperature, lower white cell counts and acute myeloid leukaemia, but not age. Patients with osteosarcoma/Ewings sarcoma and those with more severe mucositis were associated with a decreased risk of MDI. The predictive model included: malignancy type, temperature, clinically ‘severely unwell', haemoglobin, white cell count and absolute monocyte count. It showed moderate discrimination (AUROC 0.723, 95% confidence interval 0.711–0.759) and good calibration (calibration slope 0.95). The model was robust to bootstrap and cross-validation sensitivity analyses.Conclusions:This new prediction model for risk of MDI appears accurate. It requires prospective studies assessing implementation to assist clinicians and parents/patients in individualised decision making.
Introduction Inalignment with the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer (GICC), the International Society of Pediatric Oncology initiated a program to map global pediatric oncology services. As survival rates in Africa are low and data are scant, this continent was mapped first to identify areas with greatest need. Methods Beginning November 2018, an electronic survey was sent to all known stakeholders, followed by email communications and internet searches to verify data. Availability of pediatric oncologists, chemotherapy, surgical expertise, and radiotherapy was correlated with geographic region, World Bank income status, Universal Health Coverage, population < 15 and < 24 years, percentage of gross domestic product spent on healthcare, and Human Development Index (HDI). Results Responses were received from 48/54 African countries. All three treatment modalities were reportedly available in 9/48 countries, whereas seven countries reported no pediatric oncology services. Negative correlations were detected between provision of all three services and geographic region (P = 0.01), younger median population age (P = 0.002), low‐income country status (P = 0.045), and lower HDI (P < 0.001). Conclusion This study provides a comprehensive overview of pediatric oncology care in Africa, emphasizing marked disparities between countries: some have highly specialized services, whereas others have no services. A long‐term strategy to eliminate disparities in African pediatric cancer care should be aligned with the WHO GICC aims and facilitated by SIOP Africa. Meeting abstracts SIOP maps pediatric oncology services in Africa to address inequalities in childhood cancer services. Geel J, Ranasinghe N, Davidson A, Challinor J, Howard S, Wollaert S, Myezo K, Renner L, Hessissen L, Bouffet E. 51st Annual Congress of the International Society of Paediatric Oncology (SIOP), Lyon, France, October 2019. Pediatric Blood and Cancer Vol 66 S219‐S219. Pediatric cancer care in Africa: SIOP Global Mapping Program report on economic and population indicators.
BackgroundCase investigation and reactive case detection (RACD) activities are widely-used in low transmission settings to determine the suspected origin of infection and identify and treat malaria infections nearby to the index patient household. Case investigation and RACD activities are time and resource intensive, include methodologies that vary across eliminating settings, and have no standardized metrics or tools available to monitor and evaluate them.MethodsIn response to this gap, a simple programme tool was developed for monitoring and evaluating (M&E) RACD activities and piloted by national malaria programmes. During the development phase, four modules of the RACD M&E tool were created to assess and evaluate key case investigation and RACD activities and costs. A pilot phase was then carried out by programme implementers between 2013 and 2015, during which malaria surveillance teams in three different settings (China, Indonesia, Thailand) piloted the tool over a period of 3 months each. This study describes summary results of the pilots and feasibility and impact of the tool on programmes.ResultsAll three study areas implemented the RACD M&E tool modules, and pilot users reported the tool and evaluation process were helpful to identify gaps in RACD programme activities. In the 45 health facilities evaluated, 71.8% (97/135; min 35.3–max 100.0%) of the proper notification and reporting forms and 20.0% (27/135; min 0.0–max 100.0%) of standard operating procedures (SOPs) were available to support malaria elimination activities. The tool highlighted gaps in reporting key data indicators on the completeness for malaria case reporting (98.8%; min 93.3–max 100.0%), case investigations (65.6%; min 61.8–max 78.4%) and RACD activities (70.0%; min 64.7–max 100.0%). Evaluation of the SOPs showed that knowledge and practices of malaria personnel varied within and between study areas. Average monthly costs for conducting case investigation and RACD activities showed variation between study areas (min USD $844.80–max USD $2038.00) for the malaria personnel, commodities, services and other costs required to carry out the activities.ConclusionThe RACD M&E tool was implemented in the three pilot areas, identifying key gaps that led to impacts on programme decision making. Study findings support the need for routine M&E of malaria case reporting, case investigation and RACD activities. Scale-up of the RACD M&E tool in malaria-eliminating settings will contribute to improved programme performance to the high level that is required to reach elimination.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1991-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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