We report long-term intention-to-treat outcome of 118 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing down-staging to within Milan/UNOS T2 criteria before liver transplantation (LT) since 2002, and compare the results with 488 patients listed for LT with HCC meeting T2 criteria at listing in the same period. The down-staging subgroups include 1 lesion >5 cm and ≤8 cm (n=43), 2 or 3 lesions at least one >3 cm and ≤5 cm with total tumor diameter ≤8 cm (n=61), or 4 to 5 lesions each ≤3 cm with total tumor diameter ≤8 cm (n=14). In the down-staging group, 64 patients (54.2%) had received LT, and 5 (7.5%) developed HCC recurrence. Two of the 5 patients with HCC recurrence had 4–5 tumors at presentation. The 1- and 2-year cumulative probabilities for dropout (competing risk) were 24.1% and 34.2% in the down-staging group, versus 20.3% and 25.6% in the T2 group (p=0.04). The Kaplan-Meier 5-year post-transplant survival and recurrence-free probabilities were 77.8% and 90.8%, respectively, in the down-staging group, versus 81% and 88%, respectively, in the T2 group (p=0.69 and p=0.66, respectively). The 5-year intention-to-treat survival was 56.1% in the down-staging group, versus 63.3% in the T2 group (p=0.29). Factors predicting dropout in the down-staging group included pre-treatment alpha-fetoprotein ≥1000 ng/mL (multivariate HR 2.42, p=0.02) and Child’s B versus Child’s A cirrhosis (multivariate HR 2.19, p=0.04). Conclusion: Successful down-staging of HCC to within T2 criteria was associated with a low rate of HCC recurrence and excellent post-transplant survival, comparable to those meeting T2 criteria without down-staging. Due to the small number of patients with 4–5 tumors, further investigations are needed to confirm the efficacy of down-staging in this subgroup.

In a retrospective analysis of 147 patients who underwent early LT (before 6 months of abstinence) for severe AH, we found that most patients survive for 1 year (94%) and 3 years (84%), similar to patients receiving liver transplants for other indications. Sustained alcohol use after LT was infrequent but associated with increased mortality. Our findings support the selective use of LT as a treatment for severe AH. Prospective studies are needed to optimize selection criteria, management of patients after LT, and long-term outcomes.

No abstract

IMPORTANCE Several factors are associated with increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT), but no reliable risk score has been established to determine the individual risk for HCC recurrence. OBJECTIVE We aimed to develop and validate a Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT) score for patients with HCC meeting Milan criteria by imaging. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Predictors of recurrence were tested in a development cohort of 721 patients who underwent LT between 2002 and 2012 at 3 academic transplant centers (University of California–San Francisco; Mayo Clinic, Rochester; and Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville) to create the RETREAT score. This was subsequently validated in a cohort of 341 patients also meeting Milan criteria by imaging who underwent LT at the University of Toronto transplant center using the C concordance statistic and net reclassification index. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Characteristics associated with post-LT HCC recurrence. RESULTS A total of 1061 patients participated in the study; 77.8%(825) were men, and the median (IQR) age was 58.2 (53.3–63.9) years in the development cohort and 56.4 (51.7–61.0) years in the validation cohort (P < .001). In the development cohort of 721 patients (542 men), median α-fetoprotein (AFP) level at the time of LT was 8.3 ng/mL; 9.4% had microvascular invasion (n = 68), and 22.1% were beyond Milan criteria on explant (n = 159) owing to understaging by pretransplantation imaging. Cumulative probabilities of HCC recurrence at 1 and 5 years were 5.7% and 12.8%, respectively. On multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, 3 variables were independently associated with HCC recurrence: microvascular invasion, AFP at time of LT, and the sum of the largest viable tumor diameter and number of viable tumors on explant. The RETREAT score was created using these 3 variables, with scores ranging from 0 to 5 or higher that were highly predictive of HCC recurrence (C statistic, 0.77). RETREAT was able to stratify 5-year post-LT recurrence risk ranging from less than 3%with a score of 0 to greater than 75% with a score of 5 or higher. The validation cohort (n = 340; 283 men) had significantly higher microvascular invasion (23.8% [n = 81], P < .001), explant beyond Milan criteria (37.3% [n = 159], P < .001), and HCC recurrence at 5 years (17.9% [n = 159], P = .03). RETREAT showed good model discrimination (C statistic, 0.82; 95%CI, 0.77–0.86) and superior recurrence risk classification compared with explant Milan criteria (net reclassification index, 0.40; P = .001) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE We have developed and validated a simple and novel prognostic score that may improve post-LT HCC surveillance strategies and help identify patients who may benefit from future adjuvant therapies.

Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has been increasingly recognized as a marker for a poor prognosis after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Many published reports, however, have included a large proportion of patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria, and the effects of incorporating AFP as an exclusion criterion for LT remain unclear. We studied 211 consecutive patients undergoing LT for HCC within the Milan criteria according to imaging under the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease organ allocation system between June 2002 and January 2009. The majority (93.4%) had locoregional therapy before LT. The median follow-up was 4.5 years (minimum = 2 years). The Kaplan-Meier 1- and 5-year patient survival rates were 94.3% and 83.4%, respectively. In a univariate analysis, significant predictors of HCC recurrence included vascular invasion [hazard ratio (HR) = 10, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.9–26, P < 0.001], a pathological tumor stage beyond the University of California San Francisco criteria (HR = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.36–12.6, P = 0.01), an AFP level > 1000 ng/mL (HR = 4.5, 95% CI = 1.3–15.3, P = 0.02), and an AFP level > 500 ng/mL (HR = 3.1, 95% CI = 1.04–9.4, P = 0.04). In a multivariate analysis, vascular invasion was the only significant predictor of tumor recurrence (HR = 5.6, 95% CI = 1.9–19, P = 0.02). An AFP level > 1000 ng/mL was the strongest pretransplant variable predicting vascular invasion (odds ratio = 6.8, 95% CI = 1.6–19.1, P = 0.006). The 1- and 5-year rates of survival without recurrence were 90% and 52.7%, respectively, for patients with an AFP level ≤ 1000 ng/mL and 95% and 80.3%, respectively, for patients with an AFP level 1000 ng/mL (P = 0.026). Applying an AFP level > 1000 ng/mL as a cutoff would have resulted in the exclusion of 4.7% of the patients from LT and a 20% reduction in HCC recurrence. In conclusion, an AFP level > 1000 ng/mL may be a surrogate for vascular invasion and may be used to predict posttransplant HCC recurrence. Incorporating an AFP level > 1000 ng/mL as an exclusion criterion for LT within the Milan criteria may further improve posttransplant outcomes.

Patients with cirrhosis and very early iCCA may become candidates for liver transplantation; a prospective multicenter clinical trial is needed to further confirm these results. (Hepatology 2016;64:1178-1188).

It has been shown that patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) meeting UNOS T2 (Milan) criteria are advantaged compared to patients without HCC under the current organ allocation system for liver transplant (LT). We hypothesize that within T2 HCC, there is a subgroup with a low risk of waitlist dropout, and should not receive the same listing priority. This study evaluated 398 consecutive patients with T2 HCC listed for LT with MELD exception from 2005 to 2010 at our center. Competing risk (CR) regression was used to determine predictors of dropout. Probabilities of dropout due to tumor progression or death without LT by CR analysis were 9.4% at 6 months and 19.6% at 12 months. The median time from listing to LT was 8.8 months, and from listing to dropout or death without LT was 7.2 months. Significant predictors of dropout or death without LT by multivariate CR regression included 1 tumor 3–5 cm (vs. ≤3 cm), 2 or 3 tumors, lack of a complete response to first loco-regional therapy (LRT), and high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) after the first LRT. A subgroup (19.9%) meeting the following criteria: 1 tumor 2 to 3 cm, complete response after first LRT, and AFP ≤20 ng/mL after first LRT, had 1- and 2-year probabilities of dropout of 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively, compared to 21.6% and 26.5% for all other patients (p=0.004). In conclusion, a combination of tumor characteristics and complete response to the first LRT define a subgroup of patients with a very low risk of waitlist dropout who does not require the same listing priority. Our results may have important implications for the organ allocation policy for HCC.

Background and Aims United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) recently implemented a national policy granting priority listing for liver transplantation (LT) in patients who achieved down‐staging of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to Milan criteria. We aimed to evaluate the national experience on down‐staging by comparing two down‐staging groups with (1) tumor burden meeting UNOS down‐staging (UNOS‐DS) inclusion criteria and (2) “all‐comers” (AC‐DS) with initial tumor burden beyond UNOS‐DS criteria versus patients always within Milan. Approach and Results This is a retrospective analysis of the UNOS database of 3,819 patients who underwent LT from 2012 to 2015, classified as always within Milan (n = 3,276), UNOS‐DS (n = 422), and AC‐DS (n = 121). Median time to LT was 12.8 months in long wait regions, 6.5 months in mid wait regions (MWR), and 2.6 months in short wait regions (SWR). On explant, vascular invasion was found in 23.7% of AC‐DS versus 16.9% of UNOS‐DS and 14.4% of Milan (P = 0.002). Kaplan‐Meier 3‐year post‐LT survival was 83.2% for Milan, 79.1% for UNOS‐DS (P = 0.17 vs. Milan), and 71.4% for AC‐DS (P = 0.04 vs. Milan). Within down‐staging groups, risk of post‐LT death in multivariable analysis was increased in SWR or MWR (hazard ratio [HR], 3.1; P = 0.005) and with alpha‐fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 100 ng/mL at LT (HR, 2.4; P = 0.009). The 3‐year HCC recurrence probability was 6.9% for Milan, 12.8% for UNOS‐DS, and 16.7% for AC‐DS (P < 0.001). In down‐staging groups, AFP ≥ 100 (HR, 2.6; P = 0.02) was the only independent predictor of HCC recurrence. Conclusions Our results validated UNOS‐DS criteria based on comparable 3‐year survival between UNOS‐DS and Milan groups. Additional refinements based on AFP and wait time may further improve post‐LT outcomes in down‐staging groups, especially given that reported 3‐year recurrence was higher than in those always within Milan criteria.