A threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) is estimated to study the effects of oil price shocks on Canadian output and price level. While much of the literature has investigated potential asymmetric effects of positive and negative oil price shocks within a linear vector autoregression (VAR), we do so within a nonlinear VAR. Further, we extend the analysis to consider the correlation between asymmetries associated with the business cycle phase and size/sign asymmetries. Positive oil price shocks are found to have a stronger effect on output than negative oil price shocks. This asymmetry is significant in recessions, but lessened during expansions. The results also suggest that the reduction in inflation due to a negative oil price shock is larger than the increase in inflation following a positive oil price shock, especially during periods of low output growth. Yet, neither inflation nor output growth seems to vary disproportionately with the size of the oil price shock. In general, the results are robust to the ordering of the variables in the VAR process and to the time window over which the net oil price change is computed.
BackgroundThe potential for social capital to influence health outcomes has received significant attention, yet few studies have assessed the temporal ordering between the two. Even less attention has been paid to more vulnerable populations, such as low-income women with children. Our objective was to explore how different dimensions of social capital impact future health status among this population.MethodsThis study uses data from the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being (FFCWB) Study, which has followed a cohort of children and their families born in large U.S. cities between 1998 and 2000 to mostly minority, unmarried parents who tend to be at greater risk for falling into poverty. Four separate measures of social capital were constructed, which include measures of social support and trust, social participation, perceptions of neighborhood social cohesion, and perceptions of neighborhood social control. The temporal effect of social capital on self-reported health (SRH) is investigated using logistic regression and we hypothesize that higher levels of social capital are associated with higher levels of self-rated health.ResultsAfter controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors related to social capital and self-rated health, social support and trust, perceptions of neighborhood social cohesion and control at an earlier point in time were positively associated with higher levels of health four-years later. Social participation was not related to increased health. The empirical results appear robust.ConclusionHigher levels of social capital are predictive of improved health over a four-year time frame. These results suggest that policy initiatives supporting increasing the social capital available and accessible by low-income, urban, minority women are viable for improving health. Such policies may have the potential to reduce socioeconomic health disparities.
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These results suggest that social and neighbourhood environments play an important role in mental health status. Intervention and policy initiatives that increase social capital may be viable for improving mental health among low-income urban, minority women.
The authors examine which variables influence recreational visitation at 353 US National Park Service (NPS) sites. The paper provides evidence that variables other than lagged visitation, including various site designators, various regional dummies, lagged RDPI (inferior), alternative sites (complementary effect), the regional 9/11 terrorist attacks variable and the regional terrorism threat level variable (increase in threat level decreases visitation) are statistically and economically significant. Generally, the statistical significance and magnitude of the variable's influence increases as site visitation increases. These results should be of interest to planners and policy makers in general, and specifically to NPS planners in charge of a US$2.2 billion budget.
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