Ozone concentrations in excess of health‐based standards occur along the coastline of Lake Michigan. A complex pattern of ozone precursor emissions interfaces with a complex meteorological environment, presenting a challenge for air quality management and simulation. Precursors are transported into a shallow, stable boundary layer over the lake. This is followed by ozone formation and transport back onshore through a combination of synoptic and lake breeze winds. In this study, we use measurements during the Lake Michigan Ozone Study 2017 (LMOS) to quantitatively evaluate the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) model at 4 km horizontal resolution for key features of high ozone episodes over Southern Lake Michigan, with a focus on meteorological performance. WRF‐Chem showed good performance and successful reproduction of meteorological fields and clouds. Lake breeze model skill was inconsistent, with both good and poor performance depending on site and day. The combination of Noah land surface model and High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh meteorology gave the best performance with the mean bias of −0.5 °C for temperature, −0.6 °C for dewpoint temperature, and −0.3 m/s for wind speed along the western coast of Lake Michigan during the daytime. For ozone, WRF‐Chem was biased low (−4.4 ppb mean bias for daytime ozone) and underestimated hourly peak ozone. In some cases, ozone bias can be attributed to transport and lake breeze errors. Average ozone concentration showed minor (<2 ppb) sensitivity to changes to meteorology initial and boundary conditions or the land surface model.

The impacts of black carbon (BC) and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ) emissions from different source sectors (e.g., transportation, power, industry, residential, and biomass burning) and geographic source regions (e.g., Europe, North America, China, Russia, central Asia, south Asia, and the Middle East) to Arctic BC and PM 2.5 concentrations are investigated through a series of annual sensitivity simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting -sulfur transport and deposition model (WRF-STEM) modeling framework. The simulations are validated using observations at two Arctic sites (Alert and Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory), the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) surface sites over the US, and aircraft observations over the Arctic during spring and summer 2008. Emissions from power, industrial, and biomass burning sectors are found to be the main contributors to the Arctic PM 2.5 surface concentration, with contributions of ∼ 30 %, ∼ 25 %, and ∼ 20 %, respectively. In contrast, the residential and transportation sectors are identified as the major contributors to Arctic BC, with contributions of ∼ 38 % and ∼ 30 %. Anthropogenic emissions are the most dominant contributors (∼ 88 %) to the BC surface concentration over the Arctic annually; however, the contribution from biomass burning is significant over the summer (up to ∼ 50 %). Among all geographical regions, Europe and China have the highest contributions to the BC surface concentrations, with contributions of ∼ 46 % and ∼ 25 %, respectively. Industrial and power emissions had the highest contributions to the Arctic sulfate (SO 4 ) surface concentration, with annual contributions of ∼ 43 % and ∼ 41 %, respectively. Further sensitivity runs show that, among various economic sectors of all geographic regions, European and Chinese residential sectors contribute to ∼ 25 % and ∼ 14 % of the Arctic average surface BC concentration. Emissions from the Chinese industry sector and European power sector contribute ∼ 12 % and ∼ 18 % of the Arctic surface sulfate concentration. For Arctic PM 2.5 , the anthropogenic emissions contribute > ∼ 75 % at the surface annually, with contributions of ∼ 25 % from Europe and ∼ 20 % from China; however, the contributions of biomass burning emissions are significant in particular during spring and summer. The contributions of each geographical region to the Arctic PM 2.5 and BC vary significantly with altitude. The simulations show that the BC from China is transported to the Arctic in the midtroposphere, while BC from European emission sources are transported near the surface under 5 km, especially during winter.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

Abstract. Particulate matter (PM) mass concentrations, seasonal cycles, source sector, and source region contributions in Central Asia (CA) are analyzed for the period April 2008–July 2009 using the Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) chemical transport model and modeled meteorology from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Predicted aerosol optical depth (AOD) values (annual mean value ~0.2) in CA vary seasonally, with lowest values in the winter. Surface PM2.5 concentrations (annual mean value ~10 μg m−3) also exhibit a seasonal cycle, with peak values and largest variability in the spring/summer, and lowest values and variability in the winter (hourly values from 2 to 90 μg m−3). Surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) (mean value ~0.1 μg m−3) show peak values in the winter. The simulated values are compared to surface measurements of AOD as well as PM2.5, PM10, BC, and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations at two regional sites in Kyrgyzstan (Lidar Station Teplokluchenka (LST) and Bishkek). The predicted values of AOD and PM mass concentrations and their seasonal cycles are fairly well captured. The carbonaceous aerosols are underpredicted in winter, and analysis suggests that the winter heating emissions are underestimated in the current inventory. Dust, from sources within and outside CA, is a significant component of the PM mass and drives the seasonal cycles of PM and AOD. On an annual basis, the power and industrial sectors are found to be the most important contributors to the anthropogenic portion of PM2.5. Residential combustion and transportation are shown to be the most important sectors for BC. Biomass burning within and outside the region also contributes to elevated PM and BC concentrations. The analysis of the transport pathways and the variations in particulate matter mass and composition in CA demonstrates that this region is strategically located to characterize regional and intercontinental transport of pollutants. Aerosols at these sites are shown to reflect dust, biomass burning, and anthropogenic sources from Europe; South, East, and Central Asia; and Russia depending on the time period. Simulations for a reference 2030 emission scenario based on pollution abatement measures already committed to in current legislation show that PM2.5 and BC concentrations in the region increase, with BC growing more than PM2.5 on a relative basis. This suggests that both the health impacts and the climate warming associated with these particles may increase over the next decades unless additional control measures are taken. The importance of observations in CA to help characterize the changes that are rapidly taking place in the region are discussed.