No abstract

Over the years, several global models have been proposed to forecast global sustainability, provide a framework for sustainable policy-making, or to study sustainability across the FEW nexus. An integrated model is presented here with components like food-web ecosystem dynamics, microeconomics components, including energy producers and industries, and various socio-techno-economic policy dimensions. The model consists of 15 compartments representing a simplified ecological food-web set in a macroeconomic framework along with a rudimentary legal system. The food-web is modeled by Lotka–Volterra type expressions, whereas the economy is represented by a price-setting model wherein firms and human households attempt to maximize their economic well-being. The model development is done using global-scale data for stocks and flows of food, energy, and water, which were used to parameterize this model. Appropriate proportions for some of the ecological compartments like herbivores and carnivores are used to model those compartments. The modeling of the human compartment was carried out using historical data for the global mortality rate. Historical data were used to parameterize the model. Data for key variables like the human population, GDP growth, greenhouse gases like CO2 and NOX emissions were used to validate the model. The model was then used to make long-term forecasts and to study global sustainability over an extended time. The purpose of this study was to create a global model which can provide techno-socio-economic policy solutions for global sustainability. Further, scenario analysis was conducted for cases where the human population or human consumption increases rapidly to observe the impact on the sustainability of the planet over the next century. The results indicated that the planet can support increased population if the per capita consumption levels do not rise. However, increased consumption resulted in exhaustion of natural resources and increased the CO2 emissions by a multiple of 100.

Analysis of global sustainability is incomplete without an examination of the FEW nexus. Here, we modify the Generalized Global Sustainability Model (GGSM) to incorporate the global water system and project water stress on the global and regional levels. Five key water-consuming sectors considered here are agricultural, municipal, energy, industry, and livestock. The regions are created based on the continents, namely, Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and South America. The sectoral water use intensities and geographical distribution of the water demand were parameterized using historical data. A more realistic and novel indicator is proposed to assess the water situation: net water stress. It considers the water whose utility can be harvested, within economic and technological considerations, rather than the total renewable water resources. Simulation results indicate that overall global water availability is adequate to support the rising water demand in the next century. However, regional heterogeneity of water availability leads to high water stress in Africa. Africa’s maximum net water stress is 140%, so the water demand is expected to be more than total exploitable water resources. Africa might soon cross the 100% threshold/breakeven in 2022. For a population explosion scenario, the intensity of the water crisis for Africa and Asia is expected to rise further, and the maximum net water stress would reach 149% and 97%, respectively. The water use efficiency improvement for the agricultural sector, which reduces the water demand by 30%, could help to delay this crisis significantly.