The impacts of climate change on hazelnut production in Turkey—the world’s largest producer and exporter—may significantly affect the global hazelnut market depending on production and yield change. In this paper, based on gridded climate data with a 10-km horizontal resolution from regional climate model RegCM4.4 under the RCP8.5 business-as-usual scenario, multiple regression analysis was conducted to investigate yield change for the period of 2021–2050. We examined a total of 88 different locations and three phenological growth stages. We observed that hazelnut yield exhibits considerable variability depending on the phenological and sub-regional and the microclimate conditions in the humid-temperate Black Sea and the semi-humid Marmara regions. Until the middle of the century, we project that hazelnut yield will decrease up to 13% in approximately half of the current production areas. In addition, the fact that the majority of the decreases will be observed in the eastern Black Sea sub-region will cause hazelnut quality to be adversely affected. These findings are highly relevant in the context of regional development and trade in Turkey, and hazelnut processing and manufacturing sectors abroad.
İklim değişikliği ile birlikte son yıllarda Akdeniz Havzası'nda orman yangınlarının sayısında ciddi bir artış gözlenmiştir. Gerçekleşen bu yangınlar ormanlara doğal felaketlerden daha çok zarar vermektedir. Çıkan yangınların bir kısmı artan kurak hava koşulları nedeniyle doğal yollardan meydana gelirken, diğer bir kısmı ise ihmal ya da kasıt sonucunda oluşan ve büyük ölçüde iklim elemanlarının (sıcaklık, yağış, rüzgâr, nem vb.) etkisiyle büyüklüğü değişen yangınlar olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Orman yangınlarının öngörülmesinde kuraklık ile orman yangınları arasındaki ilişkiyi ele alan farklı indisler kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, olası orman yangınlarını öngörmek amacıyla yaygın olarak kullanılan yangın indislerinden; Haines İndisi (HI), Kanada Orman Yangın Hava İndisi (FWI), Keetch-Byram Kuraklık İndisi (KBDI), F İndisi detaylı olarak, Entegre Yangın İndisi (IFI), McArthur Mark 5 (Mk5) Orman ve Mark 4 (Mk4) Otlak Yangın Tehlike İndisi (McArthur Mark 5 (Mk5)), Fosberg Yangın Hava İndisi (FFWI), Nesterov İndisi (NI) ve Angström İndisi (AI) kısaca ele alınmıştır. İklim değişikliğinin orman yangınlarına etkisiyle ilgili yapılan çalışmalar kapsamında Antalya, Çanakkale ve Muğla Orman Bölge Müdürlüklerine bağlı orman arazilerinde 2008 ve 2009 yıllarında çıkan yangınlar Kanada Orman Yangın Hava İndisi (FWI) kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar 2008 ve 2009 yılı yangın verileri ile tutarlılık göstermiştir ve FWI değerleri bu yıllar için yangın riskini öngörmede başarılı bulunmuştur.
This chapter tries to assess the severity of expected climate change impacts on tourism at the Turquoise Coast (Turkey) and build up an adaptation agenda for the concerned parties. First, sea level rise projections are considered to understand the degree of exposure at the immediate coastal zone. A storm and flood risk projection follows to visualize any additional risks on the coasts as well as for the nautical tourism routes. A climate model also provides with outputs for determining the changes in the touristic climate comfort as well as spotting any increase of heatwave events. The changing windiness characteristics are also investigated to determine implications for surf tourism. Lastly, an aridity index and water deficit projections are interpreted to understand a conflicting future where water availability could decrease, whereas the growth of the tourism industry, particularly golf tourism, would imply more consumption of water resources. The assessments are finalized with implications on the future of a major component of diving tourism in the north Aegean - the red coral.
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