Background This study aimed to determine the impact of pulmonary complications on death after surgery both before and during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Methods This was a patient-level, comparative analysis of two, international prospective cohort studies: one before the pandemic (January–October 2019) and the second during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (local emergence of COVID-19 up to 19 April 2020). Both included patients undergoing elective resection of an intra-abdominal cancer with curative intent across five surgical oncology disciplines. Patient selection and rates of 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications were compared. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative mortality. Mediation analysis using a natural-effects model was used to estimate the proportion of deaths during the pandemic attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results This study included 7402 patients from 50 countries; 3031 (40.9 per cent) underwent surgery before and 4371 (59.1 per cent) during the pandemic. Overall, 4.3 per cent (187 of 4371) developed postoperative SARS-CoV-2 in the pandemic cohort. The pulmonary complication rate was similar (7.1 per cent (216 of 3031) versus 6.3 per cent (274 of 4371); P = 0.158) but the mortality rate was significantly higher (0.7 per cent (20 of 3031) versus 2.0 per cent (87 of 4371); P < 0.001) among patients who had surgery during the pandemic. The adjusted odds of death were higher during than before the pandemic (odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95 per cent c.i. 1.58 to 4.67; P < 0.001). In mediation analysis, 54.8 per cent of excess postoperative deaths during the pandemic were estimated to be attributable to SARS-CoV-2 (OR 1.73, 1.40 to 2.13; P < 0.001). Conclusion Although providers may have selected patients with a lower risk profile for surgery during the pandemic, this did not mitigate the likelihood of death through SARS-CoV-2 infection. Care providers must act urgently to protect surgical patients from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

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Background: Use of interleukin-17 inhibitors (IL-17i) in psoriasis has been associated with an increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, the clinical significance of this association is not understood. Objectives: To quantify the absolute risk of IBD in patients with psoriasis treated with IL-17i, stratified by known IBD risk factors. Methods: Literature searches were performed to identify known IBD risk factors and the prevalences were quantified by a meta-analysis of proportions. The Bayesian model was used to estimate the probability of a new-onset or a flare of IBD in patients with psoriasis. Results: The prevalence of Crohn disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) in the general psoriasis population was 0.0010. Use of IL-17i increased the risk of CD to 0.0037 and UC to 0.0028, translating to a number needed to harm (NNH) of 373 for CD and 564 for UC. In patients who had concomitant hidradenitis suppurativa, the use of IL-17i was associated with a decrease in NNH for CD and UC to 18 and 76, respectively, whereas for patients with a family history of IBD, the NNH values were 6 (for CD) and 10 (for UC). Conclusions: In patients with no risk factors, the probability of IBD flare or onset during IL-17i treatment is negligible and additional IBD screening procedures are not indicated. In contrast, the patients with psoriasis who have hidradenitis suppurativa or first-degree family history of IBD as risk factors should be monitored for signs and symptoms of CD and UC during IL-17i therapy.

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