While Pakistani trade with India could give a boost to Pakistan’s economy, there are other neighbors with whom trade could be equally important. We look at this aspect of regional trade and show that promoting trade with the rest of Pakistan’s neighbors could have a significant positive impact on the country’s growth. We show that Pakistan’s trade with these neighbors has grown rapidly over the last 10 years and at present they constitute the largest market for Pakistani exports. We also explain how these exports are not only important in terms of absolute value, they have also contributed to the development of new export products. The overall impact on Pakistan’s economy could well be to raise the trend growth rate for the next decade or so by 2 to 3 percentage points above the historical trend growth rate of 5 percent per annum
This study has a twofold objective: (i) to investigate the determinants of firm growth, specifically the extent to which finance constrains enterprise growth; and (ii) to explore the determinants of external financial access in Pakistan. External financial access is defined as access to credit through institutional sources such as private commercial banks, nonbank financial institutions, and state-owned banks and agencies. The study uses data from the second round of the Investment Climate Assessment Survey conducted by the World Bank in FY 2007. The methodology entails using an instrumental variable approach to estimate the impact of external financial access on firm growth while employing a probit model to explore the determinants of external financial access. The results suggest the following: First, finance is a binding constraint to firm growth in Pakistan-a 10 percent increase in the working capital financed through external sources is predicted to increase the average annual growth rate by 5.6 percentage points. Second, financial depth is important for access-across the country, access is better where there is greater penetration of financial infrastructure. Third, a range of internal factors such as size, export status, quality of human capital, and organizational form emerge as important determinants of external financial access in Pakistan.
The textiles and garments (T&G) sector accounts for almost 50% of Pakistan’s exports and is the largest component of manufacturing. T&G sector, because of recent favorable developments for the industry in Pakistan and the expected future changes in the international trade structure for the sector, has the potential to play an important role in expanding Pakistan’s exports. In addition, garments manufacturing is the least energy and capital intensive industrial activity and thus resonates with Pakistan’s resource endowment to generate economic growth and employment.
While "deindustrialization" is now considered normal for developed countries, recent trends show that many developing countries have seen their share of manufacturing employment peak at far earlier levels of income than in advanced countries. This new occurrence, which blocks off the main avenue for a country to catch up with more advanced economies, has been called "premature deindustrialization." As a result of stagnation in manufacturing since 2007, Pakistan is on the brink -if not already in the process -of premature deindustrialization. This paper focuses on (i) growth trends in manufacturing and the economy, (ii) developments in the context of premature deindustrialization in Pakistan, and (iii) the change in the country's structure of industry.We adapt and apply the industrial sophistication index developed by Lall, Weiss, and Zhang (2005) to the Pakistan Standard Industrial Classifications in the Census of Manufacturing Industries. The structure of industry in Pakistan, Sindh, and Punjab is mapped from 1990-99 to 2005/06 (2010 for Punjab) on the basis of a sophistication index score. Our analysis substantiates the conclusion that Pakistan's industrial structure has stagnated, drawing on analyses of export data in other studies. It also indicates that our finding of modest upgrading in the industry sector on the basis of an intuitive division of industries into low-technology and high-technology industries may have been too optimistic. Revitalizing manufacturing growth will require Pakistan to once again adopt a proactive industrial policy to address the constraints and weaknesses of the manufacturing sector. Share (%) GDPManufacturing LSM
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