Generation adequacy assessment of electrical power systems is vital in ensuring proper decision making in generation expansion planning and system operations in the face of stochastic system performance such as equipment failures and variations of generation and load. This paper presents the results of generation adequacy assessment of the Zesco generation system using the probabilistic approach. The system is analyzed under several scenarios in order to investigate the effect of each of these scenarios on the reliability of the system. The analytical method is applied to evaluate the stochastic system performance and reliability indices. In this study, the generation adequacy of the Zesco generation system was assessed considering the existing and the future generation capacity. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to assess the adequacy of Zesco generation system to meet the load requirements taking into consideration the existing and forecasted electricity demand. The results show that Zesco system was not very adequate in 2009 to meet the load requirements. On the other hand, the system is will be adequate in 2020 after addition of new generation capacity of 1280MW.
Modern electrical power systems have the responsibility of providing a reliable and economic supply of electrical energy to their customers. The economic and social effects of loss of electric service can have significant impacts on both the utility supplying electric energy and the end users of the service. Maintaining a reliable power supply is a very important issue in power system design and operation .The developing country including Nepal more often does not follow the modern planning criteria for system planning due to which we have to face problems like load shedding. This work is an exercise to detail reliability analysis of INPS using different reliability indices. The INPS has been divided into three regions and the reliability indices are found separately for each region. The two reliability indices LOLE and EENS are found to check the adequacy of generation. The load data and generation data used are all real from the only one utility of Nepal, NEA. The calculations are done according to the theory of reliability of power system on MATLAB programming. The results obtained in this work are quite satisfactory and represents the present condition of INPS.
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