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PurposeThis study investigated the trends of repetition and dropout rates in Myanmar's lower secondary education before and after the introduction of the “Continuous Assessment and Progression System (CAPS)” and probed the dependence of these tendencies on high-, middle- and low- socioeconomic status (SES). The obtained results were then examined to extract effective policy implications for the achievement of universal secondary education as specified in the Sustainable Development Goals.Design/methodology/approachBefore and after the CAPS introduction at four government secondary schools, grade repetition and dropout rate trends were examined with respect to differences in students' SES. The analysis utilised a sample of 7,272 students from target secondary schools in urban Yangon Region, Myanmar.FindingsIt was found that since the introduction of CAPS, the grade repetition rates had fallen significantly in all SES groups, so was effective regardless of students' SES. The results also demonstrated the influence of unequal CAPS on dropout rates: in the middle-SES group, significant falls to nearly zero post-CAPS implementation. The high-SES group was at ceiling pre- and post-CAPS, so was unaffected. However, in the low-SES group, high dropout rates persisted, indicating that the poor socioeconomic backgrounds of these students significantly reduced the benefits of CAPS.Originality/valueRather than using cross-sectional data such as education statistics, this study used longitudinal data based on academic enrollment registries that included information on individual enrollment statuses, which allowed for the relationships between grade repetition, school dropout, education policies and socioeconomic circumstances to be elucidated.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore individual enrolment trajectories to fully understand the actual disparity in secondary education enrolment statuses among the different socio-economic status (SES) groups in a newly emerged nation, Myanmar. Design/methodology/approach The differences in enrolment statuses among various SES groups (high, middle and low) were examined based on enrolment trajectory diagrams and individual enrolment patterns using longitudinal data. The analyses utilised a sample of 932 students from government schools in the urban Yangon Region. Findings The results revealed that the ideal enrolment trajectory cases (i.e. entering secondary education at Myanmar’s official age and completing all grades without repetition) increased for the highest-SES level, whilst the cases with diverse and complex enrolment trajectories increased for the lower-SES levels. Additionally, over-aged students in the lowest-SES level (boys in particular) were more likely to demonstrate worse enrolment patterns. Originality/value By analysing disparities with enrolment trajectories rather than with the cross-sectional parity index, the findings offer clearer and more detailed evidence for the current enrolment status inequalities by SES level in Myanmar. This more complete evidence could allow for an effective accomplishment of worldwide equitable and universal secondary education.