Future increases in global surface temperature threaten those worldwide who depend on rice production for their livelihoods and food security. Past analyses of high-temperature stress on rice production have focused on paddy yield and have failed to account for the detrimental impact of high temperatures on milling quality outcomes, which ultimately determine edible (marketable) rice yield and market value. Using genotype specific rice yield and milling quality data on six common rice varieties from Arkansas, USA, combined with on-site, half-hourly and daily temperature observations, we show a nonlinear effect of high-temperature stress exposure on yield and milling quality. A 1°C increase in average growing season temperature reduces paddy yield by 6.2%, total milled rice yield by 7.1% to 8.0%, head rice yield by 9.0% to 13.8%, and total milling revenue by 8.1% to 11.0%, across genotypes. Our results indicate that failure to account for changes in milling quality leads to understatement of the impacts of high temperatures on rice production outcomes. These dramatic losses result from reduced paddy yield and increased percentages of chalky and broken kernels, which together decrease the quantity and market value of milled rice. Recently published estimates show paddy yield reductions of up to 10% across the major rice-producing regions of South and Southeast Asia due to rising temperatures. The results of our study suggest that the often-cited 10% figure underestimates the economic implications of climate change for rice producers, thus potentially threatening future food security for global rice producers and consumers.
Despite the rapid producer adoption of hybrid rice (Oryza sativa L.) in recent years, the economic advantage of hybrid rice in the mid‐southern United States remains disputed. This study compared the economic risk and return of three popularly sown hybrid rice cultivars: XL723, Clearfield (CL) XL729, and CL XL745; and eight conventional rice cultivars: Cheniere, CL 142‐AR, CL 151, Francis, Roy J, Taggart, Templeton, and Wells, using University of Arkansas experimental test plot data from 2006 to 2010. Paddy and milling yield data on each cultivar were used to estimate a Just–Pope production function, allowing comparison of mean yields and mean yield variances across cultivars. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to compare net returns and net return variance (risk) across hybrid and conventional cultivars. Just–Pope estimation results indicated that hybrid cultivars exhibited mean paddy yield premiums of 1.6 to 2.4 Mg ha–1 relative to the best‐performing conventional cultivar (Francis); furthermore, the hybrid yield advantage was not associated with increased yield risk. Among hybrid‐CL and conventional‐CL cultivars, hybrid milling quality was not statistically different. Among non‐CL cultivars, the hybrid XL723 exhibited a mean head rice yield premium relative to conventional alternatives. Monte Carlo simulation results suggested that the net revenue advantage of hybrid cultivars makes them preferable to conventional alternatives in the CL and non‐CL categories across the entire range of producer risk preferences considered in this study.
This study estimates the proportion of rice yield increase in University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture's (UofA) released rice cultivars that are attributable to genetic improvements through the University's breeding program. Test plot data from eight UofA experiment stations were used to quantify the yield increases and potential yield growth decreases over time. In addition to quantifying the yield and yield variance evolution at the UofA, this study also calculates the economic benefits of the UofA rice breeding program. Results indicated that by releasing modern rice cultivars, the UofA rice breeding program increased average producer yield by 0.68 bu/ac annually. During the last decade, 1997-2007, the average annual economic benefits were 34.3 million (2007) dollars. When accounting for the spillover of UofA rice varieties to neighboring states the average annual economic benefit of the breeding program increases to 46.7 million (2007) dollars.
No abstract
U.S. rice industry producers face pressure from consumers, suppliers, and the government to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with rice (Oryza sativa L.) production. Arkansas rice cultivar-specific net GHG emissions information allows models of paddy rice emissions. Baseline levels of profit, yield variance, and GHG emissions are established using extension data. Varietal selection is then optimized to maximize profits and minimize GHG emissions, both constrained and unconstrained by baseline yield variance. Carbon abatement functions are estimated to examine the effects of hypothetical carbon prices on varietal selection.
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