Colonization at expanding range edges often involves few founders, reducing effective population size. This process can promote the evolution of self‐fertilization, but implicating historical processes as drivers of trait evolution is often difficult and requires an explicit model of biogeographic history. In plants, contemporary limits to outcrossing are often invoked as evolutionary drivers of self‐fertilization, but historical expansions may shape mating system diversity, with leading‐edge populations evolving elevated selfing ability. In a widespread plant, Campanula americana, we identified a glacial refugium in the southern Appalachian Mountains from spatial patterns of genetic drift among 24 populations. Populations farther from this refugium have smaller effective sizes and fewer rare alleles. They also displayed elevated heterosis in among‐population crosses, reflecting the accumulation of deleterious mutations during range expansion. Although populations with elevated heterosis had reduced segregating mutation load, the magnitude of inbreeding depression lacked geographic pattern. The ability to self‐fertilize was strongly positively correlated with the distance from the refugium and mutation accumulation—a pattern that contrasts sharply with contemporary mate and pollinator limitation. In this and other species, diversity in sexual systems may reflect the legacy of evolution in small, colonizing populations, with little or no relation to the ecology of modern populations.

In flowering plants, shifts from outcrossing to partial or complete self-fertilization have occurred independently thousands of times, yet the underlying adaptive processes are difficult to discern. Selfing's ability to provide reproductive assurance when pollination is uncertain is an oft-cited ecological explanation for its evolution, but this benefit may be outweighed by costs diminishing its selective advantage over outcrossing. We directly studied the fitness effects of a self-compatibility mutation that was backcrossed into a self-incompatible (SI) population of Leavenworthia alabamica, illuminating the direction and magnitude of selection on the mating-system modifier. In array experiments conducted in two years, self-compatible (SC) plants produced 17-26% more seed, but this advantage was counteracted by extensive seed discounting-the replacement of high-quality outcrossed seeds by selfed seeds. Using a simple model and simulations, we demonstrate that SC mutations with these attributes rarely spread to high frequency in natural populations, unless inbreeding depression falls below a threshold value (0.57 ≤ δ ≤ 0.70) in SI populations. A combination of heavy seed discounting and inbreeding depression likely explains why outcrossing adaptations such as self-incompatibility are maintained generally, despite persistent input of selfing mutations, and frequent limits on outcross seed production in nature.

Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.

It is often expected that temperate plants have expanded their geographical ranges northward from primarily southern refugia. Evidence for this hypothesis is mixed in eastern North American species, and there is increasing support for colonization from middle latitudes. We studied genome‐wide patterns of variation in RADseq loci to test hypotheses concerning range expansion in a North American forest herb (Campanula americana). First, spatial patterns of genetic differentiation were determined. Then phylogenetic relationships and divergence times were estimated. Spatial signatures of genetic drift were also studied to identify the directionality of recent range expansion and its geographical origins. Finally, spatially explicit scenarios for the spread of plants across the landscape were compared, using variation in the population mutation parameter and Tajima's D. We found strong longitudinal subdivision, with populations clustering into groups west and east of the Mississippi River. While the southeastern region was probably part of a diverse Pleistocene refugium, there is little evidence that range expansion involved founders from these southern locales. Instead, declines in genetic diversity and the loss of rare alleles support a westward colonization wave from a middle latitude refugium near the southern Appalachian Mountains, with subsequent expansion from a Pleistocene staging ground in the Mississippi River Valley (0.51–1.27 million years ago). These analyses implicate stepping stone colonization from middle latitudes as an important mechanism of species range expansion in eastern North America. This study further demonstrates the utility of population genetics as a tool to infer the routes travelled by organisms during geographical range expansion.

Inbreeding depression is dependent on the ploidy of populations and can inhibit the evolution of selfing. While polyploids should generally harbor less inbreeding depression than diploids at equilibrium, it has been unclear whether this pattern holds in non-equilibrium conditions following bottlenecks. We use stochastic individual-based simulations to determine the effects of population bottlenecks on inbreeding depression in diploids and autotetraploids, in addition to cases where neo-autotetraploids form from the union of unreduced gametes. With a ploidy-independent dominance function based on enzyme kinetics, inbreeding depression is generally lower in autotetraploids for fully and partially recessive mutations. Due to the sampling of more chromosomes during reproduction, bottlenecks generally reduce inbreeding depression to a lesser extent in autotetraploids. All else being equal, population bottlenecks may have ploidy-dependent effects for another reason-in some cases matings between close relatives temporarily increase inbreeding depression in autotetraploids by increasing the frequency of the heterozygous genotype harboring the most harmful mutations. When neo-autotetraploids are formed by few individuals, inbreeding depression is dramatically reduced, given extensive masking of harmful mutations following whole genome duplication. This effect persists as nascent tetraploids reach mutation-selection-drift balance, providing a transient period of permissive conditions favoring the evolution of selfing.