Temperature, light and carbonate chemistry all influence the growth, calcification and photosynthetic rates of coccolithophores to a similar degree. There have been multiple attempts to project the responses of coccolithophores to changes in carbonate chemistry, but the interaction with light and temperature remains elusive. Here we devise a simple conceptual model to derive a fit equation for coccolithophorid growth, photosynthetic and calcification rates in response to simultaneous changes in carbonate chemistry, temperature and light conditions. The fit equation is able to account for up to 88% of the variability in measured metabolic rates. Equation projections indicate that temperature, light and carbonate chemistry all have different modulating effects on both optimal growth conditions and the sensitivity of responses to extreme environmental conditions. Calculations suggest that a single extreme environmental condition (CO 2 , temperature, light) will reduce maximum rates regardless of how optimal the other environmental conditions may be. Thus, while the response of coccolithophores to ocean change depends on multiple variables, the one which is least optimal will have the most impact on overall rates. Finally, responses to ocean change are usually reported in terms of cellular rates. However, changes in cellular rates can be a poor predictor for assessing changes in production at the community level. We therefore introduce a new metric, the calcium carbonate production potential (CCPP), which combines the independent effects of changes in growth rate and cellular calcium carbonate content to assess how environmental changes will impact coccolith production. Direct comparison of CO 2 impacts on cellular CaCO 3 production rates and CCPP shows that while the former is still at 45% of its pre-industrial capacity at 1,000 µatm, the latter is reduced to 10%.

Abstract. Coccolithophore responses to changes in carbonate chemistry speciation such as CO2 and H+ are highly modulated by light intensity and temperature. Here, we fit an analytical equation, accounting for simultaneous changes in carbonate chemistry speciation, light and temperature, to published and original data for Emiliania huxleyi, and compare the projections with those for Gephyrocapsa oceanica. Based on our analysis, the two most common bloom-forming species in present-day coccolithophore communities appear to be adapted for a similar fundamental light niche but slightly different ones for temperature and CO2, with E. huxleyi having a tolerance to lower temperatures and higher CO2 levels than G. oceanica. Based on growth rates, a dominance of E. huxleyi over G. oceanica is projected below temperatures of 22 ∘C at current atmospheric CO2 levels. This is similar to a global surface sediment compilation of E. huxleyi and G. oceanica coccolith abundances suggesting temperature-dependent dominance shifts. For a future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario (1000 µatm fCO2), we project a CO2 driven niche contraction for G. oceanica to regions of even higher temperatures. However, the greater sensitivity of G. oceanica to increasing CO2 is partially mitigated by increasing temperatures. Finally, we compare satellite-derived particulate inorganic carbon estimates in the surface ocean with a recently proposed metric for potential coccolithophore success on the community level, i.e. the temperature-, light- and carbonate-chemistry-dependent CaCO3 production potential (CCPP). Based on E. huxleyi alone, as there was interestingly a better correlation than when in combination with G. oceanica, and excluding the Antarctic province from the analysis, we found a good correlation between CCPP and satellite-derived particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) with an R2 of 0.73, p < 0.01 and a slope of 1.03 for austral winter/boreal summer and an R2 of 0.85, p < 0.01 and a slope of 0.32 for austral summer/boreal winter.

Ocean acidification (OA) can induce shifts in plankton community composition, with coccolithophores being mostly negatively impacted. This is likely to change particulate inorganic and organic carbon (PIC and POC, respectively) production, with impacts on the biological carbon pump. Hence, assessing and, most importantly, understanding species‐specific sensitivities of coccolithophores is paramount. In a multispecies comparison, spanning more than two orders of magnitude in terms of POC and PIC production rates, among Calcidiscus leptoporus, Coccolithus pelagicus subsp. braarudii, Emiliania huxleyi, Gephyrocapsa oceanica, and Scyphosphaera apsteinii, we found that cellular PIC : POC was a good predictor for a species’ OA sensitivity. This is likely related to the need for cellular pH homeostasis, which is challenged by the process of calcification producing protons internally, especially when seawater pH decreases in an OA scenario. With higher PIC : POC, species and strains being more sensitive to OA coccolithophores may shift toward less calcified varieties in the future.

Coccolithophores are unicellular marine phytoplankton and important contributors to global carbon cycling. Most work on coccolithophore sensitivity to climate change has been on the small, abundant bloom-forming species Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica . However, large coccolithophore species can be major contributors to coccolithophore community production even in low abundances. Here we fit an analytical equation, accounting for simultaneous changes in CO 2 and light intensity, to rates of photosynthesis, calcification and growth in Scyphosphaera apsteinii . Comparison of responses to G. oceanica and E. huxleyi revealed S. apsteinii is a low-light adapted species and, in contrast, becomes more sensitive to changing environmental conditions when exposed to unfavourable CO 2 or light. Additionally, all three species decreased their light requirement for optimal growth as CO 2 levels increased. Our analysis suggests that this is driven by a drop in maximum rates and, in G. oceanica , increased substrate uptake efficiency. Increasing light intensity resulted in a higher proportion of muroliths (plate-shaped) to lopadoliths (vase shaped) and liths became richer in calcium carbonate as calcification rates increased. Light and CO 2 driven changes in response sensitivity and maximum rates are likely to considerably alter coccolithophore community structure and productivity under future climate conditions.

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