Kahneman and Tversky's 1979 article on Prospect Theory is one of the most influential papers across all of the behavioural sciences. The study tested a series of binary financial (risky) choices, ultimately concluding that judgments formed under uncertainty deviate significantly from those presumed by expected utility theory, which was the prevailing theoretical construct at the time. In the forty years since publication, this study has had a remarkable impact on science, policy, and other real-world applications. At the same time, a number of critiques have been raised about its conclusions and subsequent constructs that were founded on it, such as loss aversion. In an era where such presumed canonical theories have increasingly drawn scrutiny for inability to replicate, we attempted a multinational study of N = 4,099 participants from 19 countries and 13 languages. The same methods and procedures were used as in the original paper, adjusting only currencies to make them relative to current values, and requiring all participants to respond to all items. Overall, we found that results replicated for 94% of the 17 choice items tested. At most, results from the 1979 study were attenuated in our findings, which is most likely due to a more robust sample. Twelve of the 13 theoretical contrasts presented by Kahneman and Tversky also replicated, with a further 89% replication rate of the total contrasts possible when separating by location, up to 100% replication in some countries. We conclude that the principles of Prospect Theory replicate beyond any reasonable thresholds, and provide a number of important insights about replications, attenuation, and implications for the study of human decision-making at population-level.
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BackgroundAdvances in genetics and digital phenotyping in psychiatry have given rise to testing services targeting young people, which claim to predict psychiatric outcomes before difficulties emerge. These services raise several ethical challenges surrounding data sharing and information privacy.ObjectivesThis study aimed to investigate young people’s interest in predictive testing for mental health challenges and their attitudes towards sharing biological, psychosocial and digital data for such purpose.MethodsEighty UK adolescents aged 16–18 years took part in a digital role-play where they played the role of clients of a fictional predictive psychiatry company and chose what sources of personal data they wished to provide for a risk assessment. After the role-play, participants reflected on their choices during a peer-led interview.FindingsParticipants saw multiple benefits in predictive testing services, but were highly selective with regard to the type of data they were willing to share. Largely due to privacy concerns, digital data sources such as social media or Google search history were less likely to be shared than psychosocial and biological data, including school grades and one’s DNA. Participants were particularly reluctant to share social media data with schools (but less so with health systems).ConclusionsEmerging predictive psychiatric services are valued by young people; however, these services must consider privacy versus utility trade-offs from the perspective of different stakeholders, including adolescents.Clinical implicationsRespecting adolescents’ need for transparency, privacy and choice in the age of digital phenotyping is critical to the responsible implementation of predictive psychiatric services.
Background: Brain health is one of the cornerstones of a long and full life. Active care for brain health and reduction of lifestyle-related risks for brain disorders may be a key strategy in tackling the growing prevalence of mental and neurological illnesses. Public knowledge, perception, and preventive behavior need to be considered in the planning of effective strategies for brain health promotion. Our research is the first effort aimed at assessing Slovenian lay public knowledge, search and use of scientific information about the brain, and care for brain health.Methods: An online survey was used to gather data for descriptive and associative statistical analyses of a sample of the Slovenian public (n = 2568) in August 2017. Participants with formal brain-related education were excluded, leaving the remaining sample of the lay public (n = 1012). Demographic characteristics and information regarding the perceived importance and knowledge of brain health and engagement in preventive behaviors of participants were collected, and key associative analyses were carried out.Results: The majority of respondents (89%) considered brain health to be important. Over one-third (39%) considered their knowledge of the brain as sufficient relative to their needs. Most of the respondents identified science-recommended practices to be important for brain health. No recommendation was followed daily by the majority of the respondents, primarily due to declared lack of time (59%), and lack of information (32%). Information was obtained primarily from television (38%), followed by newspapers and magazines (31%), the Internet (31%), and direct conversations (27%). However, the highest-rated, preferred source of information was lectured by experts. One-third of our sample struggled with the trustworthiness of information sources. Female gender and older age were associated with a higher frequency of healthy practices. Personal or familial diagnoses of brain disorders were not associated with a higher frequency of the behavior in favor of brain health, but did affect available time and perceived value of preventive practices.Conclusions: Our research provides an initial insight into the perceptions, knowledge, and brain health-promoting behavior of the Slovenian lay public. Our findings can inform future strategies for science communication, public education and engagement, and policy-making to improve lifelong active care for brain health.
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