BackgroundIn 2013, the fistula risk score (FRS) was developed to assess the risk of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR‐POPF). In 2017, the alternative FRS (a‐FRS) was proposed. The purpose of this study was to validate the original FRS (o‐FRS) and a‐FRS for CR‐POPF in pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).MethodsFrom January 2007 to December 2016, 1,771 patients underwent PD for periampullary cancers. POPF was defined and classified according to the 2016 International Study Group for Pancreatic Fistula. All data were reviewed retrospectively.ResultsPathologic diagnosis other than ductal adenocarcinoma (P < 0.001), pancreas duct diameter (P < 0.001), and body mass index (P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for CR‐POPF. Pancreatic texture (P = 0.534) and estimated blood loss (P = 0.827) were not associated with CR‐POPF. The CR‐POPF incidence increased with increasing o‐FRS score (P < 0.001), and also increased statistically significantly with increasing a‐FRS in the higher risk group (P < 0.001). However, the correlations differed. The area under the curve was 0.629 for o‐FRS and 0.622 for a‐FRS.ConclusionsBoth o‐FRS and a‐FRS might reflect CR‐POPF incidence, but some risk factors had no or low statistical significance. Further research is needed to revise the FRS.

The survival of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is closely related to recurrence. It is necessary to classify the risk factors for early recurrence and to develop a tool for predicting the initial outcome after surgery. Among patients with resected resectable PDAC at Samsung Medical Center (Seoul, Korea) between January 2007 and December 2016, 631 patients were classified as the training set. Analyses identifying preoperative factors affecting early recurrence after surgery were performed. When the p-value estimated from univariable Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis was <0.05, the variables were included in multivariable analysis and used for establishing the nomogram. The established nomogram predicted the probability of early recurrence within 12 months after surgery in resectable PDAC. One thousand bootstrap resamplings were used to validate the nomogram. The concordance index was 0.665 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.637–0.695), and the incremental area under the curve was 0.655 (95% CI, 0.631–0.682). We developed a web-based calculator, and the nomogram is freely available at http://pdac.smchbp.org/. This is the first nomogram to predict early recurrence after surgery for resectable PDAC in the preoperative setting, providing a method to allow proceeding to treatment customized according to the risk of individual patients.

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