Accurately forecasting power generation in photovoltaic (PV) installations is a challenging task, due to the volatile and highly intermittent nature of solar-based renewable energy sources. In recent years, several PV power generation forecasting models have been proposed in the relevant literature. However, there is no consensus regarding which models perform better in which cases. Moreover, literature lacks of works presenting detailed experimental evaluations of different types of models on the same data and forecasting conditions. This paper attempts to fill in this gap by presenting a comprehensive benchmarking framework for several analytical, data-based and hybrid models for multi-step short-term PV power generation forecasting. All models were evaluated on the same real PV power generation data, gathered from the realisation of a small scale pilot site in Thessaloniki, Greece. The models predicted PV power generation on multiple horizons, namely for 15 min, 30 min, 60 min, 120 min and 180 min ahead of time. Based on the analysis of the experimental results we identify the cases, in which specific models (or types of models) perform better compared to others, and explain the rationale behind those model performances.
Over the past few decades, industry and academia have made great strides to improve aspects related with optimal energy management. These include better ways for efficient energy asset management, generating great opportunities for optimization of energy distribution, discomfort minimization, energy production, cost reduction and more. This paper proposes a framework for a multi-objective analysis, acting as a novel tool that offers responses for optimal energy management through a decision support system. The novelty is in the structure of the methodology, since it considers two distinct optimization problems for two actors, consumers and aggregators, with solution being able to completely or partly interact with the other one is in the form of a demand response signal exchange. The overall optimization is formulated by a bi-objective optimization problem for the consumer side, aiming at cost minimization and discomfort reduction, and a single objective optimization problem for the aggregator side aiming at cost minimization. The framework consists of three architectural layers, namely, the consumer, aggregator and decision support system (DSS), forming a tri-layer optimization framework with multiple interacting objects, such as objective functions, variables, constants and constraints. The DSS layer is responsible for decision support by forecasting the day-ahead energy management requirements. The main purpose of this study is to achieve optimal management of energy resources, considering both aggregator and consumer preferences and goals, whilst abiding with real-world system constraints. This is conducted through detailed simulations using real data from a pilot, that is part of Terni Distribution System portfolio.
In 2020, residential sector loads reached 25% of the overall electrical consumption in Europe and it is foreseen to stabilise at 29% by 2050. However, this relatively small increase demands, among others, changes in the energy consuming behaviour of households. To achieve this, Demand Response (DR) has been identified as a promising tool for unlocking the hidden flexibility potential of residential consumption. In this work, a holistic incentive-based DR framework aiming towards load shifting is proposed for residential applications. The proposed framework is characterised by several innovative features, mainly the formulation of the optimisation problem, which models user satisfaction and the economic operation of a distributed household portfolio, the customised load forecasting algorithm, which employs an adjusted Gradient Boosting Tree methodology with enhanced feature extraction and, finally, a disaggregation tool, which considers electrical features and time of use information. The DR framework is first validated through simulation to assess the business potential and is then deployed experimentally in real houses in Northern Greece. Results demonstrate that a mean 1.48% relative profit can be achieved via only load shifting of a maximum of three residential appliances, while the experimental application proves the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms in successfully managing the load curves of real houses with several residents. Correlations between market prices and the success of incentive-based load shifting DR programs show how wholesale pricing should be adjusted to ensure the viability of such DR schemes.
Though much attention is dedicated to the development of its research and innovation policy, the European Union constantly struggles to match the level of the strongest innovators in the world. Therefore, there is a necessity to analyze the individual efforts and conditions of the 27 member states that might determine their final innovative performance. The results of a scientific literature review showed that there is a growing interest in the usage of artificial intelligence when seeking to improve decision-making processes. Data envelopment analysis, as a branch of computational intelligence methods, has proved to be a reliable tool for innovation efficiency evaluation. Therefore, this paper aimed to apply DEA for the assessment of the European Union’s innovation efficiency from 2000 to 2020, when innovation was measured by patent, trademark, and design applications. The findings showed that the general EU innovation efficiency situation has improved over time, meaning that each programming period was more successful than the previous one. On the other hand, visible disparities were found across the member states, showing that Luxembourg is an absolute innovation efficiency leader, while Greece and Portugal achieved the lowest average efficiency scores. Both the application of the DEA method and the gathered results may act as viable guidelines on how to improve R&I policies and select future investment directions.
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