Recent studies have provided insights into the effect of vaccine boosters on recall immunity. Given the limited global supply of COVID-19 vaccines, identifying vulnerable populations with lower sustained vaccine-elicited antibody titers is important for targeting individuals for booster vaccinations. Here we investigated longitudinal data in a cohort of 2,526 people in Fukushima, Japan, from April 2021 to December 2021. Antibody titers following two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine were repeatedly monitored and information on lifestyle habits, comorbidities, adverse reactions, and medication use was collected. Using mathematical modeling and machine learning, we stratified the time-course patterns of antibody titers and identified vulnerable populations with low sustained antibody titers. Moreover, we showed that only 5.7% of the participants in our cohort were part of the "durable" population with high sustained antibody titers, which suggests that this durable population might be overlooked in small cohorts. We also found large variation in antibody waning within our cohort. There is a potential usefulness of our approach for identifying the neglected vulnerable population.
Antibody titers wane after two-dose COVID-19 vaccinations, but individual variation in vaccine-elicited antibody dynamics remains to be explored. Here, we created a personalized antibody score that enables individuals to infer their antibody status by use of a simple calculation. We recently developed a mathematical model of B cell differentiation to accurately interpolate the longitudinal data from a community-based cohort in Fukushima, Japan, which consists of 2,159 individuals who underwent serum sampling two or three times after a two-dose vaccination with either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. Using the individually reconstructed time course of the vaccine-elicited antibody response, we first elucidated individual background factors that contributed to the main features of antibody dynamics, i.e., the peak, the duration, and the area under the curve. We found that increasing age was a negative factor and a longer interval between the two doses was a positive factor for individual antibody level. We also found that the presence of underlying disease and the use of medication affected antibody levels negatively, whereas the presence of adverse reactions upon vaccination affected antibody levels positively. We then applied to these factors a recently proposed computational method to optimally fit clinical scores, which resulted in an integer-based score that can be used to evaluate the antibody status of individuals from their basic demographic and health information. This score can be easily calculated by individuals themselves or by medical practitioners. There is a potential usefulness of this score for identifying vulnerable populations and encouraging them to get booster vaccinations.Significance statementDifferent individuals show different antibody titers even after the same COVID-19 vaccinations, making some individuals more prone to breakthrough infections than others. Such variability remains to be clarified. Here we used mathematical modeling to reconstruct individual post-vaccination antibody dynamics from a cohort of 2,159 individuals in Fukushima, Japan. Machine learning identified several positive and negative factors affecting individual antibody titers. Positive factors included adverse reactions after vaccinations and a longer interval between two vaccinations. Negative factors included age, underlying medical conditions, and medications. We combined these factors and developed an “antibody score” to estimate individual antibody dynamics from basic demographic and health information. This score can help to guide individual decision-making about taking further precautions against COVID-19.
The persistence of HBV infection is primarily driven by the formation of closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nucleus of infected hepatocytes. Despite available therapeutic agents such as Pegylated interferon alpha (PEG IFN-α) and nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs), complete elimination of the virus, particularly cccDNA, remains challenging. The quantifying and understanding dynamics of cccDNA are essential for developing effective treatment strategies and new drugs. We here aimed to develop a non-invasive method for quantifying cccDNA in the liver using surrogate markers present in peripheral blood. We constructed a multiscale mathematical model that explicitly incorporates both intracellular and intercellular HBV infection processes. The model, based on age-structured partial differential equations (PDEs), integrates experimental data from in vitro and in vivo investigations. By applying this model, we successfully predicted the amount and dynamics of intrahepatic cccDNA using specific viral markers in serum samples, including HBV DNA, HBsAg, HBeAg, and HBcrAg. Our study represents a significant step towards advancing the understanding of chronic HBV infection. The non-invasive quantification of cccDNA using our proposed methodology holds promise for improving clinical analyses and treatment strategies. By comprehensively describing the interactions of all components involved in HBV infection, our multiscale mathematical model provides a valuable framework for further research and the development of targeted interventions.
Evaluation of intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) is a key for searching an elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. HBV RNA and HBV core-related antigen have been proposed as surrogate markers for evaluating cccDNA activity, although they do not necessarily estimate the amount of cccDNA. Here, we developed a novel multiscale mathematical model describing intra- and inter-cellular viral propagation, based on the experimental quantification data in both HBV-infected cell culture and humanized mouse models. We applied it to HBV-infected patients under treatment and developed a model which can predict intracellular HBV dynamics only by use of noninvasive extracellular surrogate biomarkers. Importantly, the model prediction of the amount of cccDNA in patients over time was confirmed to be well correlated with the liver biopsy data. Thus, our noninvasive method enables to predict the amount of cccDNA in patients and contributes to determining the treatment endpoint required for elimination of intrahepatic cccDNA.
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