Aim Most predictive models for falls developed previously were awkward to use because of their complexity. We developed and validated a new easier-to-use predictive model for falls of adult inpatients using easily accessible information including the public ADL scale in Japan. Methods We retrospectively analyzed data from Japanese adult inpatients in an acute care hospital from 2012 to 2015. Two-thirds of cases were randomly extracted to the test set and one-third to the validation set. Data including age, sex, activity of daily living (ADL), public scales in Japan of ADL “bedriddenness rank,” and cognitive function in daily living, hypnotic medications, previous falls, and emergency admission were derived from hospital records. Falls during hospitalization were identified from incident reports. Two predictive models were created by multivariate analysis, each of which was assessed by area under the curve (AUC) from the validation set. Results A total of 7,858 adult participants were available. The AUC of model 1, using 13 factors—age, sex (male), emergency admission, use of ambulance, referral letter, admission to Neurosurgery, admission to Internal Medicine, use of hypnotic medication, permanent damage by stroke, history of falls, visual impairment, independence of eating, and bedriddenness rank—with low mutual collinearity and showing significant relationship by multivariate logistic regression analysis, was 0.789 in the validation set. The AUC of parsimonious model 2, using age and seven factors—sex (male), emergency admission, admission to Neurosurgery, use of hypnotic medication, history of falls, independence of eating, and bedriddenness rank—showing statistical significance by multivariate analysis in model 1, was 0.787 in the validation set. Conclusions We proposed new predictive models for inpatients’ fall using the public ADL scales in Japan, which had a higher degree of usability because of their use of simpler and fewer (8 or 13) predictors, especially parsimonious model 2.

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Background The statistical validities of the official Japanese classifications of activities of daily living (ADLs), including bedriddenness ranks (BR) and cognitive function scores (CFS), have yet to be assessed. To this aim, we evaluated the ability of BR and CFS to assess ADLs using inter-rater reliability and criterion-related validity. Methods New inpatients aged ≥75 years were enrolled in this hospital-based prospective observational study. BR and CFS were assessed once by an attending nurse, and then by a social worker/medical clerk. We evaluated inter-rater reliability between different professions by calculating the concordance rate, kappa coefficient, Cronbach’s α, and intraclass correlation coefficient. We also estimated the relationship of the Barthel Index and Katz Index with the BR and CFS using Spearman’s correlation coefficients. Results For the 271 patients enrolled, BR at the first assessment revealed 66 normal, 10 of J1, 15 of J2, 18 of A1, 31 of A2, 37 of B1, 35 of B2, 22 of C1, and 32 of C2. The concordance rate between the two BR assessments was 68.6%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.61, Cronbach’s α of 0.91, and an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.83, thus showing good inter-rater reliability. BR was negatively correlated with the Barthel Index (r = − 0.848, p < 0.001) and Katz Index (r = − 0.820, p < 0.001), showing justifiable criterion-related validity. Meanwhile, CFS at the first assessment revealed 92 normal, 47 of 1, 19 of 2a, 30 of 2b, 60 of 3a, 8 of 3b, 8 of 4, and 0 of M. The concordance rate between the two CFS assessments was 70.1%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.62, Cronbach’s α of 0.87, and an intraclass correlation coefficient 0.78, thus also showing good inter-rater reliability. CFS was negatively correlated with the Barthel Index (r = − 0.667, p < 0.001) and Katz Index (r = − 0.661, p < 0.001), showing justifiable criterion-related validity. Conclusions BR and CFS could be reliable and easy-to-use grading scales of ADLs in acute clinical practice or large-scale screening, with high inter-rater reliabilities among different professions and significant correlations with well-established, though complicated to use, instruments to assess ADLs. Trial registration UMIN000041051 (2020/7/10).

Purpose The training of generalist physicians in university hospitals needs to emphasize development of their research role in order to continue improving their research capacity and their standing in academic hospitals in Japan. This cross-sectional descriptive study aimed to survey departments of general medicine (GM) in university hospitals in Japan to identify the research areas and themes pursued by academic generalist physicians. Patients and Methods The heads of the departments of GM from 71 university hospitals in Japan were enrolled. The main outcomes studied were the identification of the main research areas and themes in academic departments of GM, based on the classification of the National Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI): clinical research, public health, preventive medicine, medical education, basic science, health services and safety and quality. Results We received 47 of 71 replies (66.2% response rate). Clinical research was the most common area of research (62%), followed by public health and preventive medicine (14%), medical education (11%), and basic sciences (9%). Only one department identified health services and safety and quality as a research area (2%). There was marked variability in research areas across the different departments, with 23% of the research targeting the highest specialties, particularly organ-specific research in the fields of gastroenterology, cardiology, immunology, neurology, metabolic endocrinology, and hematology-oncology. Conclusion The training of generalist physicians in university hospitals needs to emphasize development of their research role in order to continue improving the research capacity and the standing generalist physicians in academic hospitals in Japan.

Background Several reliable predictive models for falls have been reported, but are too complicated and time-consuming to evaluate. We recently developed a new predictive model using just eight easily-available parameters including the official Japanese activities of daily living scale, Bedriddenness ranks, from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. This model has not yet been prospectively validated. This study aims to prospectively validate our new predictive model for falls among inpatients admitted to two different hospitals. Methods A double-centered prospective cohort study was performed from October 1, 2018, to September 30, 2019 in an acute care hospital and a chronic care hospital. We analyzed data from all adult inpatients, for whom all data required by the predictive model were evaluated and recorded. The eight items required by the predictive model were age, gender, emergency admission, department of admission, use of hypnotic medications, previous falls, independence of eating, and Bedriddenness ranks. The main outcome is in-hospital falls among adult inpatients, and the model was assessed by area under the curve. Results A total of 3,551 adult participants were available, who experienced 125 falls (3.5%). The median age (interquartile range) was 78 (66–87) years, 1,701 (47.9%) were men, and the incidence of falls was 2.25 per 1,000 patient-days and 2.06 per 1,000 occupied bed days. The area under the curve of the model was 0.793 (95% confidence interval: 0.761–0.825). The cutoff value was set as − 2.18, making the specificity 90% with the positive predictive value and negative predictive value at 11.4% and 97%. Conclusions This double-centered prospective cohort external validation study showed that the new predictive model had excellent validity for falls among inpatients. This reliable and easy-to-use model is therefore recommended for prediction of falls among inpatients, to improve preventive interventions. Trial registration UMIN000040103 (2020/04/08)