Since its discovery in 1907, polyploidy has been recognized as an important phenomenon in vascular plants, and several lines of evidence indicate that most, if not all, plant species ultimately have a polyploid ancestry. However, previous estimates of the frequency of polyploid speciation suggest that the formation and establishment of neopolyploid species is rare. By combining information from the botanical community's vast cytogenetic and phylogenetic databases, we establish that 15% of angiosperm and 31% of fern speciation events are accompanied by ploidy increase. These frequency estimates are higher by a factor of four than earlier estimates and lead to a standing incidence of polyploid species within genera of 35% (n ‫؍‬ 1,506). Despite this high incidence, we find no direct evidence that polyploid lines, once established, enjoy greater net species diversification. Thus, the widespread occurrence of polyploid taxa appears to result from the substantial contribution of polyploidy to cladogenesis, but not from subsequent increases in diversification rates of polyploid lines.

BackgroundMTML-msBayes uses hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (HABC) under a coalescent model to infer temporal patterns of divergence and gene flow across codistributed taxon-pairs. Under a model of multiple codistributed taxa that diverge into taxon-pairs with subsequent gene flow or isolation, one can estimate hyper-parameters that quantify the mean and variability in divergence times or test models of migration and isolation. The software uses multi-locus DNA sequence data collected from multiple taxon-pairs and allows variation across taxa in demographic parameters as well as heterogeneity in DNA mutation rates across loci. The method also allows a flexible sampling scheme: different numbers of loci of varying length can be sampled from different taxon-pairs.ResultsSimulation tests reveal increasing power with increasing numbers of loci when attempting to distinguish temporal congruence from incongruence in divergence times across taxon-pairs. These results are robust to DNA mutation rate heterogeneity. Estimating mean divergence times and testing simultaneous divergence was less accurate with migration, but improved if one specified the correct migration model. Simulation validation tests demonstrated that one can detect the correct migration or isolation model with high probability, and that this HABC model testing procedure was greatly improved by incorporating a summary statistic originally developed for this task (Wakeley's ΨW). The method is applied to an empirical data set of three Australian avian taxon-pairs and a result of simultaneous divergence with some subsequent gene flow is inferred.ConclusionsTo retain flexibility and compatibility with existing bioinformatics tools, MTML-msBayes is a pipeline software package consisting of Perl, C and R programs that are executed via the command line. Source code and binaries are available for download at http://msbayes.sourceforge.net/ under an open source license (GNU Public License).

Natural hybridization threatens a substantial number of plant and animal species with extinction, but extinction risk has been difficult to evaluate in the absence of a quantitative assessment of risk factors. We investigated a number of ecological parameters likely to affect extinction risk, through an individualbased model simulating the life cycle of two hybridizing annual plant species. All parameters tested, ranging from population size to variance in pollen-tube growth rates, affected extinction risk. The sensitivity of each parameter varied dramatically across parameter sets, but, overall, the competitive ability, initial frequency, and selfing rate of the native taxon had the strongest effect on extinction. In addition, prezygotic reproductive barriers had a stronger influence on extinction rates than did postzygotic barriers. A stable hybrid zone was possible only when habitat differentiation was included in the model. When there was no habitat differentiation, either one of the parental species or the hybrids eventually displaced the other two taxa. The simulations demonstrated that hybridization is perhaps the most rapidly acting genetic threat to endangered species, with extinction often taking place in less than five generations. The simulation model was also applied to naturally hybridizing species pairs for which considerable genetic and ecological information is available. The predictions from these "worked examples" are in close agreement with observed outcomes and further suggest that an endemic cordgrass species is threatened by hybridization. These simulations provide guidance concerning the kinds of data required to evaluate extinction risk and possible conservation strategies. Predicción del Riesgo de Extinción por HibridaciónResumen: La hibridación natural amenaza de extinción a numerosas especies de plantas y animales. Sin embargo, el riesgo de extinción es difícil de determinar en ausencia de una evaluación cuantitativa de los factores de riesgo. Investigamos un conjunto de parámetros ecológicos que afectan el riesgo de extinción, por medio de un modelo basado en individuos que simula el ciclo de vida de dos especies de plantas anuales hibridizantes. Todos los parámetros muestreados, desde el tamaño de la población hasta la varianza en la tasa de crecimiento de los tubos de polen, afectaron el riesgo de extinción. La sensibilidad de cada parámetro varió dramáticamente en los conjuntos de parámetros, pero en general, la habilidad competitiva, la frecuencia inicial y la tasa de autogamia del taxón nativo tuvieron el mayor efecto sobre la extinción. Adicionalmente, las barreras reproductivas precigóticas tuvieron una influencia mayor en las tasas de extinción que las barreras postcigóticas. Una zona híbrida estable solo fue posible cuando se incluyó la diferenciación del hábitat en el modelo. Donde no hubo diferenciación de hábitat, alguna de las especies parentales o los híbridos eventualmente desplazaban a los otros dos taxones. Las simulaciones demostraron que la hibridación es quizás la ...

G. Ledyard Stebbins suggested that self-fertilization (selfing) may be an evolutionary dead end because it may result in the loss of genetic diversity and consequently preclude adaptation to changing environments. While the basic premise of selfing as a dead end is widely accepted, there have been few rigorous evaluations of the hypothesis. We examine the foundations of the dead-end hypothesis by considering theoretical advances in the study of mating-system evolution. We discuss theories predicting the irreversibility of self-fertilization and the extinction of selfing lineages through the loss of adaptive potential and genetic degradation. In the second portion of the review, focusing on the irreversibility of selfing, we summarize the contribution of phylogenetic studies of mating-system evolution to determine if evolutionary history supports this well-established hypothesis. Most studies are in accord with the hypothesis; no single study unequivocally demonstrates the transition from highly selfing to outcrossing lineages. Finally, we discuss the problems encountered when phylogenetic studies rely on reconstruction of ancestral mating systems. To avoid some of these problems, we applied likelihood ratio tests of irreversibility of mating-system evolution to several data sets and found that current data sets are probably too small for this test.

Background: Although testing for simultaneous divergence (vicariance) across different population-pairs that span the same barrier to gene flow is of central importance to evolutionary biology, researchers often equate the gene tree and population/species tree thereby ignoring stochastic coalescent variance in their conclusions of temporal incongruence. In contrast to other available phylogeographic software packages, msBayes is the only one that analyses data from multiple species/population pairs under a hierarchical model.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques have seen rapid and accelerating development in biology, with applications including population genetics, systems biology, and community ecology (reviewed in Beaumont 2010;Csilléry et al. 2010). However, the approximations and model assumptions inherent in ABC can make model choice and parameter estimation problematic, and careful simulation-based validation and assessment of posterior predictive power are required (Gelman et al.

Androdioecy is an unusual breeding system in which populations consist of separate male and hermaphrodite individuals. The evolution of androdioecy is still poorly understood; however, there is evidence from several androdioecious species that the breeding system may have evolved from dioecy (males and females). This article presents a simple deterministic model showing that androdioecy can evolve from dioecy under a broad range of realistic conditions. For the evolution of androdioecy from dioecy, hermaphrodites must be able to invade the dioecious population. Then, males must be maintained, while females are eliminated. Hermaphrodite invasion is favored when females are pollen limited and hermaphrodites have high overall fertility and are self-fertile. Male maintenance is favored when hermaphrodites resemble females, having high seed production and low pollen fitness, and when the selfing rate is not too high. These conditions were satisfied over a broad and realistic range of parameter values, suggesting that the evolution of androdioecy from dioecy is highly plausible.

Summary• Current perceptions that poplars have high levels of nucleotide variation, large effective population sizes, and rapid decay of linkage disequilibrium are based primarily on studies from one poplar species, Populus tremula.• We analysed 590 gene fragments (average length 565 bp) from each of 15 individuals from different populations from throughout the range of Populus balsamifera.• Nucleotide diversity (h total = 0.0028, p = 0.0027) was low compared with other trees and model agricultural systems. Patterns of nucleotide diversity and site frequency spectra were consistent with purifying selection on replacement and intron sites. When averaged across all loci we found no evidence for decay of linkage disequilibrium across 750 bp, consistent with the low estimates of the scaled recombination parameter, q = 0.0092.• Compared with P. tremula, a well studied congener with a similar distribution, P. balsamifera has low diversity and low effective recombination, both of which indicate a lower effective population size in P. balsamifera. Patterns of diversity and linkage indicate that there is considerable variation in population genomic patterns among poplar species and unlike P. tremula, association mapping techniques in balsam poplar should consider sampling single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at well-spaced intervals.