Purpose This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development. Design/methodology/approach China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy. Findings Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously. Practical implications The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance. Originality/value The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose an uncertainty representation and information measurement method for characterizing grey numbers, estimating their internal laws and solving how to generate them based on available information data in the real world.Design/methodology/approachThis paper attempts to present a new mathematical methodology in the field of grey numbers. The generalized grey number is defined at first with the concept of information elements and information samples. Then, the probability function of a grey number is proposed to describe the internal law of the grey number. By finding the feasible information elements from information samples, the probability calculation method for the true value of a grey number is presented. Finally, some numerical examples and comparisons are carried out to assess the efficiency and performance.FindingsThe results show that the uncertainty representation and information measurement method is effective in characterizing and quantifying grey numbers based on available information data.Practical implicationsUncertain information is widespread in practical applications. In this manuscript, the grey number is represented and its information is measured through some existing data in discrete or interval forms, which provides a grey information concept that utilizes information elements to represent uncertainty in the real world.Originality/valueThe proposal presents a novel data-driven method to generate a grey number representation from available data rather than the classical whitening weight function constructed from experience, and the dynamic evolution process of a grey number is measured by the increase of information samples.
The clustering evaluation can be used to scientifically classify the objects to be evaluated according to the information aggregation of various evaluation rules. In grey weighted clustering evaluation, the index clustering rule relies on the construction of the whitenization weight function, while the existing construction method of the linear function lacks the construction mechanism analysis and validity explanation. A normative construction principle is put forward by analyzing the construction mechanism of the function. Through proving the normative principle of the function, the basic modal function (BMF) is proposed and characterized by different function forms. Then, a new type of the whitenization weight function and its grey clustering evaluation model algorithm are given by studying the mechanism and nature of the construction of different forms of the function. Finally, the comparative study for self-innovation capability of defense science and technology industry (DSTI) is taken as an example. The results show that the different construction ways of the function have an effect on the clustering result. The proposed construction mechanism can better explain the index clustering rules and evaluation effectiveness, which will perfect the theoretical system of grey clustering evaluation and be applied to practice effectively.
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