To identify the indicators of adaptive capacity that determine vulnerability of households, an intensive investigation was conducted in farming communities at two locations in the Asian highlands. Livelihood vulnerability was assessed, classified to four categories and regressed against current adaptive capacity using logistic regression. Household head's education, irrigated land, non-agricultural income, and technologies used were associated with adaptive capacity. The strengthening of human, natural and financial capital is identified as the best means of managing risk in farming communities in this mountainous region. ARTICLE HISTORY

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The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops.

Climate change and related hazards affect the livelihoods of people and their vulnerability to shocks and stresses. Though research on the linkages between a changing climate and vulnerability has been increasing, only a few studies have examined the caste/ethnicity and gender dimensions of livelihood vulnerability. In this study, we attempt to explore how cultural and gender-related aspects influence livelihood vulnerability in indigenous farming mountain communities of the Nepal Himalaya in the context of climate change. We applied the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to estimate household (social group and gender-based) vulnerability in farming communities in the Melamchi River Valley, Nepal. The results identified female-headed families, and those belonging to disadvantaged social groups as more vulnerable and in need of being preferentially targeted by policy measures. Higher exposure to climatic extremes and related hazards, dependency on natural resources, lack of financial assets, and weak social networking were identified as components that determine overall vulnerability. The study also visualizes complex adaptation pathways and analyzes the influence of gender and ethnicity on the capacities of households and communities to adapt to climate change.

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