Land use change (LUC) driven by human activities and natural factors has resulted in the global loss of native biodiversity and the alteration of ecological processes and services across different ecosystems. It is thus necessary to analyze the trends and driving factors that influence land use changes. In this study, moderate resolution Landsat images were freely downloaded from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) archives, analyzed using the random forest (RF) algorithm and mapped in ArcGIS 10.2 software to examine the LUC trends from 1990 to 2016 in the Kilombero valley floodplain (KVFP), Tanzania. Participatory rural appraisals (PRA) and household questionnaire surveys were used to assess the potential drivers of LUC. The results show that, from 1990 to 2016, the agricultural land and grassland increased by 11.3% and 13.3%, respectively, while the floodplain wetland area decreased from 4.6% in 1990 to 0.9% in 2016. Based on a questionnaire survey, the intensification of human activities was identified as the proximate driver while population growth, a growing market demand and price incentives for agricultural and forest products coupled with improved infrastructure and biophysical factors such as soil properties, climate variability and terrain characteristics were identified as the underlying drivers of LUC. However, there is interplay among these factors acting simultaneously as well as differently that influence land use changes. Based on these findings, future sustainable land management strategies should include the introduction of the alternative environmentally friendly sources of livelihood, such as beekeeping, the promotion of community participation and education on the importance of sustainable wetland management.

Land use/cover change (LUCC) attributed to natural factors and human activities has led to the loss of ecosystem services, making the quantitative valuation of ecosystem services the scientific focal pointfor sustainable development. This study assessed changes in the ecosystem services values (ESVs) due to LUCC during the period 1990–2016 in the Kilombero Valley floodplain, located in southeastern Tanzania. Moderate resolution Landsat images from 1990, 2010 and 2016 were obtained and analyzed using a random forest (RF) algorithm for classification, and ArcGIS Desktop software (version 10.2, Esri, Redlands, CA, USA) for mapping to assess the LUCC. The ESVs were estimated based on the benefit transfer approach using adopted global value coefficients and modified local value coefficients. The results revealed that the aggregated ESVs of the forests, bushlands, wetlands, and water had decreased, consequently leading to a total loss of US$ 811.5 million (26.6%) in ESVs over the past 26 years when calculated with the modified local value coefficients to US$ 3000.7 million (42.3%) when calculated with global value coefficients. Moreover, the loss in the ESV was attributed to the decreased values of water regulation, climate regulation, erosion control, nutrient cyclying, habitat/refugia, and water supply, with the exception of the values of food production and biological control, which gradually increased during the study period. This study provided minimum estimates of the ecosystem service values, which willcontribute to the formulation of policy actions and strategies for sustainable management of the Kilombero Valley floodplain and inform various stakeholders on the tradeoffs involved in the use of land resources.

Connections between social drivers (human activities) and ecological drivers (natural events) are currently considered as the key factors affecting land use change in tropical wetland ecosystem. However, the complexity interaction of these socio-ecological drivers is often poorly understood. This paper examined the interaction of these two systems in the Kilombero valley floodplain. Kilombero valley floodplain is one of the largest tropical wetland in Africa offering a wide spectrum of habitats for plant and animal species sustaining several ecosystem services and ecological functions, which has been under threat of wetland loss and degradation. The study used the documentary review approach to investigate the interaction of socio and ecological systems in the study area. The study revealed that population growth, market growth and price incentive for cash crops and timber products coupled with improved infrastructures, policy and institutional framework are the social drivers, while flat terrain characteristics, heavy black alluvial soils coupled with high water holding capacity, increased temperature and rainfall variability accompanied with prolonged dry spells are the ecological drivers of land use change and wetland conversion in the study area. However, there are relationships among these drivers, as they act simultaneously as well as differently to influence land use changes in the study area. The study recommended that socioecological interactions and the needs of local communities whose livelihood is highly dependent on wetland resources must be central to the development of wetland policies and wetland management approaches.