This paper aims to evaluate the fiscal policy implemented by the USMCA economies to deal with the COVID-19 economic crisis. We estimate the economic capacity (potential output) and the Cyclical Primary Balance as a percentage of GDP (CPB) of each of the scrutinized economies. Then we obtain the Cyclical Adjusted Primary Balance as a percentage of GDP (CAPB) as the difference between the Primary Balance (PB) and the CPB. Unlike previous CPB estimations, we obtain the potential output reference as the Economic Capacity methodology (Shaikh and Moudud, 2004), which overcome some alternative methodologies problems. According to our empirical analysis, an asymmetric fiscal policy stands across USMCA economies. Canada and the United States are using a countercyclical fiscal policy, while Mexico uses a procyclical one. Mexico should abandon its current fiscal policy, implement an alternative to support households and firms during crisis periods, and execute a progressive fiscal reform. Our paper's limitation is that we use PB and not its components to estimate the CPB; however, we use a more extended time series, contributing to obtaining more robust results.
<p>El presente trabajo analiza las principales características de la política monetaria no convencional del banco central europeo (BCE) y su efectividad sobre el desempleo entre 2008-2019. En nuestro análisis empírico utilizamos una metodología PVAR; encontramos efectividad atribuible a cambios en la tasa de interés de la política monetaria y a los anuncios de política con estrategias forward guidance durante los primeros 12 meses. Asimismo, identificamos una escasa certeza en la reducción del desempleo mediante el uso de la hoja de balance del BCE. Los resultados sugieren que las medidas de política no convencionales han contribuido en la gradual, aunque lenta, recuperación económica y en la reducción de la tasa de desempleo.</p>
<p>En este documento analizo la relación que existe entre el crecimiento económico, el comercio exterior y la capacidad tributaria. Sostengo que los impuestos no necesariamente distorsionan la eficiencia y que dependen de la actividad económica. Para documentar la hipótesis realizo cuatro modelos panel cointegrados para un grupo de 55 países y su subsecuente división de acuerdo con tres niveles de ingreso para el periodo de 1990-2018. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el crecimiento económico es una condición <em>sine qua non</em> para determinar la capacidad recaudatoria pero no es suficiente en aquellos países con desigualdad económica. Por lo tanto, es necesario estimular el desarrollo económico y promover reformas fiscales progresivas.</p><p> </p><p align="center">THE COMPOSITION OF TAX EFFORT: EVIDENCE FOR A PANEL OF COUNTRIES.</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>This document analyzes the relationship between economic growth, foreign trade and tax capacity. It is argued that taxes do not distort efficiency and that they depend on economic activity. In order to empirically support our hypothesis, four cointegrated panel models are carried out for a group of 55 countries and their subsequent division according to three income levels for the period 1990-2018. The results obtained show that economic growth is a <em>sine qua non</em> condition for determining tax capacity, but it is not enough in countries plagued with economic inequality. Therefore, it is necessary to stimulate economic development and promote progressive fiscal reforms.</p>
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