The Chinese grouse Tetrastes sewerzowi is restricted to small mountain areas on the southeastern edge of Qinghai—Tibet plateau. Recent evidence indicates that the global climate has undergone rapid change. To assess the potential effects of climate change on Chinese grouse, we applied a maximum‐entropy modeling (MaxEnt) method to predict the current and future distributions of this species for three time periods: 2020, 2050 and 2080 in two greenhouse‐gas emissions scenarios (A2a and B2a), which assume a medium and a lower increase in CO2 emissions, respectively. Our modeling revealed that: 1) the size of suitable areas for grouse will decline over time, especially in emissions scenario A2a; 2) range shifts will happen at both latitudinal (northward shift) and elevational direction (upward). In addition, habitat expansion will be limited relative to loss, especially in the more distant future. Although the size of suitable area will not change greatly in the near future (e.g. 2020 and 2050), as predicted in the emissions scenario A2a in 2020, habitat will become more fragmented. Therefore, we suggest that the habitat fragmentation be considered with range shifts calculation while assessing the climate change threats. To cope with the ongoing climate change, either the protected area of the existing reserves should be expanded or new reserves should be established to accommodate range shifts. Reforestation and gouse population monitoring should also be conducted in the reserves to track response of grouse to climate change.
An increasing number of empirical studies in animals have demonstrated male mate choice. However, little is known about the evolution of postpairing male choice, specifically which occurs by differential allocation of male parental care in response to female signals. We use a population genetic model to examine whether such postpairing male mate choice can evolve when males face a trade‐off between parental care and extra‐pair copulations (EPCs). Specifically, we assume that males allocate more effort to providing parental care when mated to preferred (signaling) females, but they are then unable to allocate additional effort to seek EPCs. We find that both male preference and female signaling can evolve in this situation, under certain conditions. First, this evolution requires a relatively large difference in parental investment between males mated to preferred versus nonpreferred females. Second, whether male choice and female signaling alleles become fixed in a population versus cycle in their frequencies depends on the additional fecundity benefits from EPCs that are gained by choosy males. Third, less costly female signals enable both signaling and choice alleles to evolve under more relaxed conditions. Our results also provide a new insight into the evolution of sexual conflict over parental care.
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