No abstract

The effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) has often been measured by comparing deforestation or land cover loss before and after PA establishment or within and outside the PA. Such evaluations ignore forest degradation or the decline in quality of the ecological values of the forest. Landsat image processing and geographical information systems were used to study forest cover changes in and around Popa Mountain Park (central Myanmar). Deforestation inside the Park was lower than outside the Park, but forest degradation, namely the net area that changed from dense forest to open forest, within the Park had grown at rates exceeding those outside the Park. The effectiveness of the PA was overestimated by adopting deforestation as the only indicator of conservation effectiveness. Forest degradation studies can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of PAs.

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Implementing effective conservation requires an understanding of factors affecting deforestation and forest degradation. Previous studies have investigated factors affecting deforestation, while few studies have examined the determinants of both of deforestation and forest degradation for more than one period. To address this gap, this study examined factors influencing deforestation and forest degradation during 1989-2000 and 2000-2005 in the Popa Mountain Park, Myanmar. We applied multinomial logistic regression (MNL) using land cover maps derived from Landsat images as the dependent variables as well as spatial and biophysical factors as the independent variables. The MNL models revealed influences of the determinants on deforestation and forest degradation changes over time. For example, during 1989-2000, deforestation from closed forest was positively correlated to the distance from the park boundary and was negatively correlated with distance from villages, roads, the park circular road, slope, western aspect and elevation. On the other hand, during 2000-2005, deforestation of closed forest was positively correlated with distance from villages, roads, the park circular road, slope and western aspect, and negatively correlated with distance from the park boundary and elevation. Similar scenarios were observed for the deforestation of open forest and forest degradation of closed forest. The study also found most of the determinants influenced deforestation and forest degradation differently. The changes in determinants of deforestation and forest degradation over time might be attributable to the general decrease in resource availability and to the effect of conservation measures conducted by the park.