Fluctuations in oil price and its impact on economic development is an important issue facing a growing number of world economies. A simple changes in oil prices lead to negative or positive effects on all the economic sectors. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of oil price volatility on economic sectors in the Libyan economy context on the basis of annual data spanning from 1968-2012. The Johansen based Co-integration technique is applied to examine the sensitivity of economic sectors to volatility in oil prices in the long-run. And the short-run relationship is tested by Vector Error Correction Model. Through examining the results, that there is a long-term relationship of oil prices on the agriculture, construction, manufacturing and transport sectors. Finally, this study concludes that increases in oil price did not significantly affect the manufacturing sector in aggregate terms. Moreover, the negative impact on the sector of manufacturing and agriculture. Thus, this study has a significant impact in the Libyan economy in policy development on oil prices. The Libyan government needs to control the price to make sure that price volatility will not harm the manufacturing, agriculture, construction and transport sectors.
Contribution/ OriginalityThis study contributes in the existing literature by analyzing the effect of fluctuations in oil prices on Libya's economic growth. This study also departs from previous studies relating Libyan economy and oil price fluctuations by considering the implications of both positive and negative oil price fluctuations on GDP in Libya.
This paper reveals the conditional correlations and fluctuation spillovers between oil price shocks and stock markets indices in Middle East countries, over the period from March 2000 to March 2015, by using the BEKK-GARCH, DCC-GARCH models. The results show strong evidence of fluctuation spillovers between the price of WTI to all exporting and oil importing stock indexes. The results further show that the estimates of the conditional correlations are always significant. Time-varying correlations of crude oil and stock index do not differ from oil-exporter or oilimporter countries. Crude oil price shocks have a significant impact on the relationship between crude oil and stock indices in the world crisis periods. The extent of the influence stock market collapse in 2008 crisis on the correlation coefficients is much more important than those of the previous financial crises.
The exchange rate is not only a determinant of economic activity but also a factor affecting the performance of stock market. In other words, the exchange rate volatility makes an impact on the stock market of any economy. This study has attempted to determine the relationship between exchange rate and stock prices of Middle East countries, using the GARCH model for the period Jan-2004 to Apr-2018, to make an econometric analysis. In this context, various time series analysis and Granger causality test were applied. Results of analyses show a strong evidence of causation running from exchange rate to stock prices; implying several variations such as Dubai stock prices experienced exchange rate volatility while the Saudi stock market witnessed a unidirectional relationship running from stock prices to exchange rate implying that variations the Saudi exchange rate determines the stock prices volatility. Finally, in the Egyptian stock market, no relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices was witnessed which means that changes in Egyptian stock prices cannot be explained by the volatility in the exchange rate.Contribution/ Originality: This study contributes to the existing literature by enriching the evidence on the domestic value creation in the involvement in global value chains in Middle East countries economy, through using the using the GARCH model for the period Jan-2004 until Apr-2018
The current study has been conducted to understand the organizational commitment levels of the teachers, who are currently working at the Libyan schools, which are operating in Turkey based on their different personal factors (gender, marital status, age and length of service). This data set has been collected by asking 116 teachers to fill-in questionnaires. The mentioned teachers are currently working for 10 Libyan schools operating in Turkey. The questionnaire includes the first part consisting of demographic questions while its second part deals with the questions pertaining to the teachers’ organizational commitment levels. In order to measure the teachers’ personal factors like seniority, gender, age, and marital status, the first part has been carefully designed. In the second part, eighteen organizational commitment assessment items were selected for measuring the teachers’ organizational commitment levels. For this purpose, we applied an already tried and tested scale, which was originally developed by Allen, Smith and Meyer (1993), so as to test the four hypotheses. According to our one-way variance analysis, the mean scores obtained for the teachers showed significant differences in organizational commitment when variables like marital status and age were taken as independent variables.
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