Aftershock deficiency in large-slip zones of major subduction zone earthquake ruptures indicates below-critical shear stress.

In 2013 and 2018, earthquake swarms with a maximum moment magnitude of 4.5 occurred ~5 km from the northern section of the Dead Sea Transform Fault. Here we show that aquifer pressure data, interferometric synthetic aperture radar surface deformation time series, and seismic monitoring suggest that groundwater withdrawal triggered these earthquakes. Continuous groundwater extraction from several wells located ~10 km west of the swarms has accelerated since 2010 and resulted in a total decrease of ~50 m of the groundwater level at the time of the 2018 earthquake swarm. The withdrawal also corresponds to surface subsidence of ~10 mm/year based on repeat interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements. The temporal correlation, extensive subsidence, anomalous swarm characteristics, and normal faulting orientation suggest a connection between the groundwater withdrawal and recent earthquakes. Poroelastic modeling demonstrates that pumping‐induced pore pressure decrease west of the earthquake could have caused significant dilatational stresses that led to normal faulting events outside the aquifer.

Large earthquakes (magnitude ≥ 7.0) are rare, especially along slow-slipping plate boundaries. Lack of large earthquakes in the instrumental record enlarges uncertainty of the recurrence time; the recurrence of large earthquakes is generally determined by extrapolation according to a magnitude-frequency relation. We enhance the seismological catalog of the Dead Sea Fault Zone by including a 220,000-year-long continuous large earthquake record based on seismites from the Dead Sea center. We constrain seismic shaking intensities via computational fluid dynamics modeling and invert them for earthquake magnitude. Our analysis shows that the recurrence time of large earthquakes follows a power-law distribution, with a mean of 1400 ± 160 years. This mean recurrence is notable shorter than the previous estimate of 11,000 years for the past 40,000 years. Our unique record confirms a clustered earthquake recurrence pattern and a group-fault temporal clustering model, and reveals an unexpectedly high seismicity rate on a slow-slipping plate boundary.

Spectacular deformations observed in lake sediments in an earthquake prone region (Lisan Formation, pre-Dead Sea lake) appear in phases of laminar, moderate folds, billow-like asymmetric folds, coherent vortices, and turbulent chaotic structures. These deformations are tied to earthquake events which are speculated to be intensified by seiche (mini Tsunami)-induced shear at the bottom of the lake.

The total number of aftershocks increases with main shock magnitude, resulting in an overall well‐defined relationship. Observed variations from this trend prompt questions regarding influences of regional environment and individual main shock rupture characteristics. We investigate how aftershock productivity varies regionally and with main shock source parameters for large (Mw ≥ 7.0) circum‐Pacific megathrust earthquakes within the past 25 years, drawing on extant finite‐fault rupture models. Aftershock productivity is found to be higher for subduction zones of the western circum‐Pacific than for subduction zones in the eastern circum‐Pacific. This appears to be a manifestation of differences in faulting susceptibility between island arcs and continental arcs. Surprisingly, events with relatively large static stress drop tend to produce fewer aftershocks than comparable magnitude events with lower stress drop; however, for events with similar coseismic rupture area, aftershock productivity increases with stress drop and radiated energy, indicating a significant impact of source rupture process on productivity.

No abstract

Large earthquakes on subduction zone plate boundary megathrusts result from intervals of strain accumulation and release. The mechanism diversity and spatial distribution of moderate‐size aftershocks is influenced by the mainshock rupture depth extent. Mainshocks that rupture across the shallow megathrust to near the trench have greater intraplate aftershock faulting diversity than events with rupture confined to deeper portions of the megathrust. Diversity of intraplate aftershock faulting also increases as the size of the mainshock approaches the largest size event to have ruptured that region of the megathrust. Based on these tendencies, we identify “breakthrough” ruptures as those involving shallow rupture of the megathrust with volumetrically extensive elastic strain drop around the plate boundary that allows activation of diverse intraplate faulting influenced by long‐term ambient deformation stresses. In contrast, homogeneity of the aftershock faulting mechanisms indicates only partial release of elastic strain energy and remaining potential for another large rupture.

The seismic origin of turbidites is verified either by correlating such layers to historic earthquakes, or by demonstrating their synchronous deposition in widely spaced, isolated depocenters. A historic correlation could thus constrain the seismic intensity required for triggering turbidites. However, historic calibration is not applicable to prehistoric turbidites. In addition, the synchronous deposition of turbidites is difficult to test if only one deep core is drilled in a depocenter. Here, we propose a new approach that involves analyzing the underlying in situ deformations of prehistoric turbidites, as recorded in a 457 m‐long core from the Dead Sea center, to establish their seismic origin. These in situ deformations have been verified as seismites and could thus authenticate the trigger for each overlying turbidite. Moreover, our high‐resolution chemical and sedimentological data validate a previous hypothesis that soft‐sediment deformation in the Dead Sea formed at the sediment‐water interface.