Abstract. Flash floods observed in headwater catchments often cause catastrophic material and human damage worldwide. Considering the large number of small watercourses possibly affected, the use of automated methods for flood inundation mapping at a regional scale can be of great help for the identification of threatened areas and the prediction of potential impacts of these floods. An application of three mapping methods of increasing level of complexity is presented herein, including a digital terrain model (DTM) filling approach (height above nearest drainage/Manning–Strickler or HAND/MS) and two hydrodynamic methods (caRtino 1D and Floodos 2D). These methods are used to estimate the flooded areas of three major flash floods observed during the last 10 years in southeastern France, i.e., the 15 June 2010 flooding of the Argens river and its tributaries (585 km of river reaches), the 3 October 2015 flooding of small coastal rivers of the French Riviera (131 km of river reaches) and the 15 October 2018 flooding of the Aude river and its tributaries (561 km of river reaches). The common features of the three mapping approaches are their high level of automation, their application based on a high-resolution (5 m) DTM, and their reasonable computation times. Hydraulic simulations are run in steady-state regime, based on peak discharges estimated using a rainfall–runoff model preliminarily adjusted for each event. The simulation results are compared with the reported flood extent maps and the high water level marks. A clear grading of the tested methods is revealed, illustrating some limits of the HAND/MS approach and an overall better performance of hydraulic models which solve the shallow water equations. With these methods, a good retrieval of the inundated areas is illustrated by critical success index (CSI) median values close to 80 %, and the errors on water levels remain mostly below 80 cm for the 2D Floodos approach. The most important remaining errors are related to limits of the DTM, such as the lack of bathymetric information, uncertainties on embankment elevation, and possible bridge blockages not accounted for in the models.
Abstract. Flash floods observed in headwater catchments often cause catastrophic material and human damage worldwide. Considering the large number of small watercourses possibly affected, the use of automated methods for flood inundation mapping at a regional scale can be of great help for the identification of threatened areas and the prediction of potential impacts of these floods. An application of three mapping methods of increasing level of complexity (HAND/MS, caRtino 1D, and Floodos 2D) is presented herein. These methods are used to estimate the flooded areas of three major flash floods observed during the last ten years in South-Eastern France: the 15th of June 2010 flood on the Argens river and its tributaries (585 km of river reaches), the 3rd of October 2015 flood on small coastal rivers of the French Riviera (131 km of river reaches) and the 15th of October 2018 floods on the Aude river and its tributaries (561 km of river reaches). The common features of the three mapping approaches are their high level of automation, their application based on a high-resolution (5 m) DTM, and their reasonable computation times. Hydraulic simulations are run in steady-state regime, based on peak discharges estimated using a rainfall-runoff model preliminary adjusted for each event. The simulation results are compared with the reported flood extent maps and the high water level marks. A clear grading of the tested methods is revealed, illustrating some limits of the HAND/MS approach and an overall better performance of hydraulic models solving the shallow water equations. With these methods, the inundated areas are overall well retrieved, and the errors on water levels remain mostly below 80 cm for the 2D Floodos approach. The most important remaining errors are related to limits of the digital elevation model such as the lack of bathymetric information, uncertainties on embankment elevation and to possible bridge blockages not accounted for in the models.
<p>Flash Floods cause significant material and human damage worldwide. In France, they frequently hit small rivers of the Mediterranean area, often inducing catastrophic consequences.</p><p>Considering the large number of possibly affected small watercourses, the use of automated flood-mapping methods may be of great help for the identification of the possibly affected areas and the prediction of the potential consequences of this type of floods.</p><p>In 2019, a first evaluation of three automated inundation-mapping methods, directly implemented on high-resolution Digital Terrain Models (DTM) was presented (https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-15710-1.pdf). The automatically retrieved flood extent maps were compared with simulated reference maps from local expert studies.&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p><p>As a continuation of this work, an application of the two best performing of these methods (1D caRtino approach and 2D Floodos approach), is presented here for the simulation of &#160;three recent flash flood events:</p><ul><li>The 15<sup>th</sup> of June 2010 flood on the Argens watershed: 25 deaths, more than 1 billion &#8364; of economic damage, 585 km of affected and simulated rivers.</li> <li>The 3<sup>rd </sup>&#8211; 4<sup>th,</sup> of october 2015 floods in the French Riviera: 20 deaths, and 600 million &#8364; of economic damage, 131 km of affected and simulated rivers.</li> <li>The 15<sup>th </sup>- 16<sup>th</sup> of October 2018 flood on the Aude watershed: 15 deaths, approximatively 300 million &#8364; of economic damage, 569 km of affected and simulated rivers.</li> </ul><p>At first, the peak discharges for each reach of the stream network are estimated with a hydrological model (CINECAR), calibrated against discharge values based on extensive post-event surveys. The hydraulic simulations with the two methods are then run for each reach separately in steady-state regime, based on estimated peak discharges, to obtain simulated flood maps at the reach scale that are then combined to obtain a flood extent map for the simulated event. The computation times are calculated for the two methods and compared.</p><p>The simulation results are compared with observed flood extent maps and high water marks. The flood extent maps are compared based on a critical success index criterion (CSI), showing an overall very good correspondence. The simulated water levels show a difference of less than 50 cm with high water marks in most cases.</p><p>Finally, a sensitivity analysis to the quality of DTM input information and roughness coefficients is presented.</p>
Flash-flood events can have catastrophic socio-economic consequences. To reduce their impacts, it is of crucial importance to set up efficient warning systems. Although first operational flash-flood warning systems have recently been implemented, some limitations are clearly identified by end-users: non-exhaustive geographic coverage, limited lead times, warnings based on hazard assessment instead of risk. However, the desirable improvements raise real scientific challenges in various domains. In this context, the PICS (Prevision immediate des impacts des crues soudaines -Flash-flood events impacts nowcasting -2018-2022) project gathers French scientific teams with varied skills (meteorologists, hydrologists, hydraulicians, economists, social geographers) and operational stakeholders (civil security, local authorities, insurance companies, managers of hydroelectric facilities and transport network). Funded by the French national research agency (ANR), it aims to develop and evaluate pre-operational forecasting chains able to estimate the potential impacts of flash floods with short anticipation lead times (up to 6 hours). These modelling chains include different components. Distributed hydrological models transform the observed and forecasted rainfall into runoff. Hydraulic models translate this runoff into potential flooded areas. Impact models incorporate these results to evaluate the potential for social and economic impacts. The research and operational partners selected four case studies based on various criteria, including the occurrence of human impacts and damages, the availability of validation data. Validation data include discharges recorded at gauging stations, but also more original information collected after each event, such as peak discharges and maximum water levels estimated from flood marks, insurance claims, damages observed on infrastructure (roads, railway…), victims interviews, casualties,etc. This presentation focuses on the methodology used for the involvement of representative potential end-users, leading to fruitfull dialogues and informative outcomes. Some of the first results of the project are also presented.
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