Background Ischemic stroke (IS) is a complex polygenic disease with a strong genetic background. The relationship between the ANRIL (antisense non-coding RNA in the INK4 locus) in chromosome 9p21 region and IS has been reported across populations worldwide; however, these studies have yielded inconsistent results. The aim of this study is to clarify the types of single-nucleotide polymorphisms on the ANRIL locus associated with susceptibility to IS using meta-analysis and comprehensively assess the strength of the association. Methods Relevant studies were identified by comprehensive and systematic literature searches. The quality of each study was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Allele and genotype frequencies were extracted from each of the included studies. Odds ratios with corresponding 95% confidence intervals of combined analyses were calculated under three genetic models (allele frequency comparison, dominant model, and recessive model) using a random-effects or fixed-effects model. Heterogeneity was tested using the chi-square test based on the Cochran Q statistic and I2 metric, and subgroup analyses and a meta-regression model were used to explore sources of heterogeneity. The correction for multiple testing used the false discovery rate method proposed by Benjamini and Hochberg. The assessment of publication bias employed funnel plots and Egger’s test. Results We identified 25 studies (15 SNPs, involving a total of 11,527 cases and 12,216 controls maximum) and performed a meta-analysis. Eight SNPs (rs10757274, rs10757278, rs2383206, rs1333040, rs1333049, rs1537378, rs4977574, and rs1004638) in ANRIL were significantly associated with IS risk. Six of these SNPs (rs10757274, rs10757278, rs2383206, rs1333040, rs1537378, and rs4977574) had a significant relationship to the large artery atherosclerosis subtype of IS. Two SNPs (rs2383206 and rs4977574) were associated with IS mainly in Asians, and three SNPs (rs10757274, rs1333040, and rs1333049) were associated with susceptibility to IS mainly in Caucasians. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the reliability of the original results. Ethnicity and individual studies may be the main sources of heterogeneity in ANRIL. Conclusions Our results suggest that some single-nucleotide polymorphisms on the ANRIL locus may be associated with IS risk. Future studies with larger sample numbers are necessary to confirm this result. Additional functional analyses of causal effects of these polymorphisms on IS subtypes are also essential.
Embolic stroke (ES) is characterized by high morbidity and mortality. Its mortality predictors remain unclear. This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) to identify the key predictors of mortality for ES patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Data were extracted from two large ICU databases: MIMIC-IV for training and internal validation, and eICU-CRD for external validation. We developed predictive models of ES mortality based on 15 ML algorithms. We relied on the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) to address class imbalance. Our main performance metric was area under the ROC (AUROC). We adopted recursive feature elimination (RFE) for feature selection. We assessed model performance using three disease-severity scoring systems as benchmarks. Of the 1,566 and 207 ES patients enrolled in the two databases, there were 173 (15.70%), 73 (15.57%), and 36 (17.39%) hospital mortality in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohort, respectively. The random forest (RF) model had the largest AUROC (0.806) in the internal validation phase and was chosen as the best model. The AUROC of the RF compact (RF-COM) model containing the top six features identified by RFE was 0.795. In the external validation phase, the AUROC of the RF model was 0.838, and the RF-COM model was 0.830, outperforming other models. Our findings suggest that the RF model was the best model and the top six predictors of ES hospital mortality were Glasgow Coma Scale, white blood cell, blood urea nitrogen, bicarbonate, age, and mechanical ventilation.
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