The durability of concrete materials with regard to early-age volume changes and cracking phenomena depends on the evolution of the poroelastic properties of cement paste. The ability of engineers to control the uncertainty of the percolation threshold and the evolution of the elastic modulus, the Biot-Willis parameter and the skeleton Biot modulus is key for minimizing the vulnerability of concrete structures at early-age. This work presents original results on the uncertainty propagation and the sensitivity analysis of a multiscale poromechanics-hydration model applied to cement pastes of water-to-cement ratio of 0.40, 0.50 and 0.60. Notably, the proposed approach provides poroelastic properties required to model the behavior of partially saturated aging cement pastes (e.g. autogenous shrinkage) and it predicts the percolation threshold and undrained elastic modulus in good agreement with experimental data. The development of a stochastic metamodel using polynomial chaos expansions allows to propagate the uncertainties of kinetic parameters of hydration, cement phase composition, elastic moduli and morphological parameters of the microstructure. The presented results show that the propagation does not magnify the uncertainty of the single poroelastic properties although, their correlation may amplify the variability of the estimates obtained from poroelastic state equations. In order to reduce the uncertainty of the percolation threshold and that of the poroelastic properties at early-age, engineers need to assess more accurately the apparent activation energy of calcium aluminate and, later on, of the elastic modulus of low density calcium-silicate-hydrate.

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