International audienceA new diagnostic convective closure, which is dependent on convective available potential energy (CAPE), is derived under the quasi-equilibrium assumption for the free troposphere subject to boundary layer forcing. The closure involves a convective adjustment time scale for the free troposphere and a coupling coefficient between the free troposphere and the boundary layer based on different time scales over land and ocean. Earlier studies with the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) have already demonstrated the model's ability to realistically represent tropical convectively coupled waves and synoptic variability with use of the "standard" CAPE closure, given realistic entrainment rates. A comparison of low-resolution seasonal integrations and high-resolution short-range forecasts against complementary satellite and radar data shows that with the extended CAPE closure it is also possible, independent of model resolution and time step, to realistically represent nonequilibrium convection such as the diurnal cycle of convection and the convection tied to advective boundary layers, although representing the late night convection over land remains a challenge. A more in-depth regional analysis of the diurnal cycle and the closure is provided for the continental United States and particularly Africa, including comparison with data from satellites and a cloud-resolving model (CRM). Consequences for global numerical weather prediction (NWP) are not only a better phase representation of convection, but also better forecasts of its spatial distribution and local intensity
Abstract. By applying four-dimensional variational dataassimilation (4-D-Var) to a combined ozone and dynamics Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP), ozone observations generate wind increments through the ozonedynamics coupling. The dynamical impact of Aura/MLS satellite ozone profiles is investigated using Météo-France operational ARPEGE NWP 4-D-Var assimilation system for a period of 3 months. A data-assimilation procedure has been designed and run on 6-h windows. The procedure includes: (1) 4-D-Var assimilating both ozone and operational NWP standard observations, (2) ARPEGE transporting ozone as a passive-tracer, (3) MOCAGE, the Météo-France chemistry and transport model re-initializing the ARPEGE ozone background at the beginning time of the assimilation window. Using observation minus forecast statistics, it is found that the ozone assimilation reduces the wind bias in the lower stratosphere. Moreover, the Degrees of Freedom for Signal diagnostics show that the MLS data covering the 68.1-31.6 hPa vertical pressure range are the most informative and their information content is nearly of the same order as tropospheric humidity-sensitive radiances. Furthermore, with the help of error variance reduction diagnostics, the ozone contribution to the reduction of the horizontal divergence background-error variance is shown to be better than tropospheric humidity-sensitive radiances.
Abstract. This paper presents a comprehensive characterization of a very deep stratospheric intrusion which occurred over the British Isles on 15 August 2007. The signature of this event is diagnosed using ozonesonde measurements over Lerwick, UK (60.14 • N, 1.19 • W) and is also well characterized using meteorological analyses from the global operational weather prediction model of Météo-France, ARPEGE. Modelled as well as assimilated fields of both ozone (O 3 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) have been used in order to better document this event. O 3 and CO from Aura/MLS and Terra/MOPITT instruments, respectively, are assimilated into the three-dimensional chemical transport model MOCAGE of Météo-France using a variational 3-D-FGAT (First Guess at Appropriate Time) method. The validation of O 3 and CO assimilated fields is done using selfconsistency diagnostics and by comparison with independent observations such as MOZAIC (O 3 and CO), AIRS (CO) and OMI (O 3 ). It particularly shows in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region that the assimilated fields are closer to MOZAIC than the free model run. The O 3 bias between MOZAIC and the analyses is −11.5 ppbv with a RMS of 22.4 ppbv and a correlation coefficient of 0.93, whereas between MOZAIC and the free model run, the corresponding values are 33 ppbv, 38.5 ppbv and 0.83, respectively. In the same way, for CO, the bias, RMS and correlation coefficient between MOZAIC and the analyses are −3.16 ppbv, 13 ppbv and 0.79, respectively, whereas between MOZAIC Correspondence to: L. El Amraoui (laaziz.elamraoui@meteo.fr) and the free model they are 6.3 ppbv, 16.6 ppbv and 0.71, respectively. The paper also presents a demonstration of the capability of O 3 and CO assimilated fields to better describe a stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) event in comparison with the free run modelled O 3 and CO fields. Although the assimilation of MLS data improves the distribution of O 3 above the tropopause compared to the free model run, it is not sufficient to reproduce the STE event well. Assimilated MOPITT CO allows a better qualitative description of the stratospheric intrusion event. The MOPITT CO analyses appear more promising than the MLS O 3 analyses in terms of their ability to capture a deep STE event. Therefore, the results of this study open the perspectives for using MOPITT CO in the STE studies.
The 2004/2005 Arctic winter was unusually cold with high potential for Polar Stratospheric Clouds formation. We use O3 and N2O assimilated fields from Aura/MLS in order to describe the dynamical processes inside the polar vortex during this winter. The evolution of N2O assimilated field shows that subsidence was the dominant dynamical process between early December and late January. The mixing effect between the polar vortex and midlatitudes has been diagnosed using the effective diffusivity parameter. It shows that from early February to the end of March, mixing was dominant compared to diabatic descent. The vortex‐averaged ozone loss profile from O3 assimilated field shows a maximum of ∼1.5 ppmv at 425 K, which is less pronounced compared to other winters of similar meteorological conditions (e.g., 1999/2000). This is due to the importance of the mixing processes between the polar vortex and midlatitudes which bring in ozone‐rich air to the vortex.
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