THE PURPOSE. To analyze scenarios for the development of the energy complex of one of the regions of the North-East of Russia for the period up to 2030 with a target vision until 2050. This will require an analysis of the current state of the energy complex; show the latest changes in the power supply system; propose promising areas for the transfer of electricity. METHODS. To assess the current state of the electric power industry, from the point of view of the most efficient use of natural energy resources and the potential of the energy sector of the economy, methods of collecting and processing statistical data were applied. For the technical assessment of the state of electric power facilities, analytical and logical- probabilistic methods for determining reliability were applied. To predict energy consumption, mathematical modeling methods were used with the construction of approximating polynomials. RESULTS. The article evaluates the strategic and moderate scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in modern conditions, taking into account the increase in the energy efficiency of the region's economy. The indicators of electricity consumption throughout the republic, the Western Energy District and the decentralized power supply zone were subject to assessment. Long-term forecasts made do not confirm the development of events according to a more stringent strategic scenario. At the same time, the results for the moderate scenario are fully correlated with both the current state of the energy sector and the prospects for its development. CONCLUSION. Analysis of the current state and assessment of scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the republic's economy showed an increase in the reliability of power supply systems when organizing a "ring" in the Western Energy District; increase in useful electricity consumption by 2030; increase in electricity production; changes in the structure of electricity production.
В статье рассматривается вопрос перспектив развития электроэнергетики Республики Саха (Якутия). Представлена краткая информация об энергетической системе «Восток», большую часть которой территориально занимает Республика Саха (Якутия) и на три четверти она находится в зоне вечной мерзлоты. Описаны крупнейшие инвестиционные проекты Республики Саха (Якутия) в области энергетики, среди которых особое место занимает строительство Якутской ГРЭС-2 и Канкунской ГЭС. Сделан упор на решение одной из ключевых проблем для энергетики республики-снижение перекрестного субсидирования потребителями южно-Якутского, Центрального и Западного энергорайонов потребителей Северного энергорайона. Обозначены основные цели и задачи исследования, заключающиеся в обеспечении качественного и надежного электроснабжения изолированных населенных пунктов, уменьшении объема завозимого дизельного топлива в труднодоступные и изолированные районы республики, обновлении основных фондов электрических сетей. Для решения поставленных задач произведена оценка реализации долгосрочной программы развития и оптимизации локальной энергетики Республики Саха (Якутия). Представлено текущее состояние электроэнергетики республики и произведено сопоставление сценариев программы оптимизации локальной энергетики с технико-экономической точки зрения. Сделаны выводы и заключения о перспективах реализации представленной программы и перспективах развития электроэнергетики Республики Саха (Якутия) в целом. Ключевые слова: электроэнергетика, субсидирование, изолированный район, локальная энергетика, возобновляемые источники энергии, надежность энергоснабжения, Республика Саха (Якутия)
This paper is a feasibility study of the long-term program for the development and optimization of local energy in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). It sets the primary goals and objectives of research, which is to reliably supply high-quality electricity to isolated settlements, to reduce subsidies the local energy providers need, and to renew the fixed assets. The paper overviews the state of the art in the Republic’s energy sector and compares different versions of the local energy optimization program from the standpoint of feasibility. The authors conclude on the prospects of implementing the presented program.
THE PURPOSE. To analyze scenarios for the development of the energy complex of one of the regions of the North-East of Russia for the period up to 2030 with a target vision until 2050. This will require an analysis of the current state of the energy complex; show the latest changes in the power supply system; propose promising areas for the transfer of electricity. METHODS. To assess the current state of the electric power industry, from the point of view of the most efficient use of natural energy resources and the potential of the energy sector of the economy, methods of collecting and processing statistical data were applied. For the technical assessment of the state of electric power facilities, analytical and logical- probabilistic methods for determining reliability were applied. To predict energy consumption, mathematical modeling methods were used with the construction of approximating polynomials. RESULTS. The article evaluates the strategic and moderate scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in modern conditions, taking into account the increase in the energy efficiency of the region's economy. The indicators of electricity consumption throughout the republic, the Western Energy District and the decentralized power supply zone were subject to assessment. Long-term forecasts made do not confirm the development of events according to a more stringent strategic scenario. At the same time, the results for the moderate scenario are fully correlated with both the current state of the energy sector and the prospects for its development. CONCLUSION. Analysis of the current state and assessment of scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the republic's economy showed an increase in the reliability of power supply systems when organizing a "ring" in the Western Energy District; increase in useful electricity consumption by 2030; increase in electricity production; changes in the structure of electricity production.
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