Hemoglobin level was primarily associated with iron status in these Indian toddlers; however, maternal hemoglobin level, family wealth, and food insecurity were also important factors. Strategies for minimizing childhood anemia must include optimized iron intake but should simultaneously address maternal anemia, poverty, and food insecurity.

It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability—by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.

BackgroundHealth systems interventions, such as capacity-building of health workers, are implemented across districts in order to improve performance of healthcare organisations. However, such interventions often work in some settings and not in others. Local health systems could be visualised as complex adaptive systems that respond variously to inputs of capacity building interventions, depending on their local conditions and several individual, institutional, and environmental factors. We aim at demonstrating how the realist evaluation approach advances complex systems thinking in healthcare evaluation by applying the approach to understand organisational change within local health systems in the Tumkur district of southern India.MethodsWe collected data on several input, process, and outcome measures of performance of the talukas (administrative sub-units of the district) and explore the interplay between the individual, institutional, and contextual factors in contributing to the outcomes using qualitative data (interview transcripts and observation notes) and quantitative measures of commitment, self-efficacy, and supervision style.ResultsThe talukas of Tumkur district responded differently to the intervention. Their responses can be explained by the interactions between several individual, institutional, and environmental factors. In a taluka with committed staff and a positive intention to make changes, the intervention worked through aligning with existing opportunities from the decentralisation process to improve performance. However, commitment towards the organisation was neither crucial nor sufficient. Committed staff in two other talukas were unable to actualise their intentions to improve organisational performance. In yet another taluka, the leadership was able to compensate for the lack of commitment.ConclusionsCapacity building of local health systems could work through aligning or countering existing relationships between internal (individual and organisational) and external (policy and socio-political environment) attributes of the organisation. At the design and implementation stage, intervention planners need to identify opportunities for such triggering alignments. Local health systems may differ in their internal configuration and hence capacity building programmes need to accommodate possibilities for change through different pathways. By a process of formulating and testing hypotheses, making critical comparisons, discovering empirical patterns, and monitoring their scope and extent, a realist evaluation enables a comprehensive assessment of system-wide change in health systems.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1478-4505-12-42) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

No abstract

Background: Determinants of vitamin B-12, folate, iron, and vitamin A concentrations in young children in rural south Asia are poorly understood. These micronutrients are crucial for the production of hemoglobin and have other important physiologic functions. Objective: We sought to develop explanatory models for concentrations of vitamin B-12, folate, ferritin, and retinol binding protein (RBP) in children aged between 1 and 2 y in rural Karnataka, India. Design: We performed a cross-sectional study in 12-23-mo-old toddlers who lived in 2 rural districts of Karnataka, India. For each child, data concerning dietary, food-security, and sociodemographic and maternal factors were obtained, and serum vitamin B-12, folate, ferritin, and RBP were measured. Multiple regression and structural equation modeling were applied to determine associations with micronutrient concentrations. Results: Of 396 sampled children, 254 children (65.6%) had at least one micronutrient deficiency. With the use of multiple regression, continued breastfeeding was independently associated with the concentration of each micronutrient [(log) vitamin B-12: standardized coefficient of 20.30 (P , 0.001); folate: standardized coefficient of +0.20 (P , 0.001); (log) ferritin: standardized coefficient of 20.18 (P = 0.004); (log) RBP: standardized coefficient of20.21 (P , 0.001)]. Children who continued to breastfeed received less nutrition from complementary foods and belonged to poorer families with higher food insecurity. A structural equation model for children's vitamin B-12 concentrations was developed that highlighted the interrelation between wealth, continued breastfeeding, complementary diet, and vitamin B-12 concentrations in children.

Performance of local health services managers at district level is crucial to ensure that health services are of good quality and cater to the health needs of the population in the area. In many low- and middle-income countries, health services managers are poorly equipped with public health management capacities needed for planning and managing their local health system. In the south Indian Tumkur district, a consortium of five non-governmental organizations partnered with the state government to organize a capacity-building program for health managers. The program consisted of a mix of periodic contact classes, mentoring and assignments and was spread over 30 months. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework in the form of a refined program theory to understand how such a capacity-building program could bring about organizational change. A well-formulated program theory enables an understanding of how interventions could bring about improvements and an evaluation of the intervention. In the refined program theory of the intervention, we identified various factors at individual, institutional, and environmental levels that could interact with the hypothesized mechanisms of organizational change, such as staff’s perceived self-efficacy and commitment to their organizations. Based on this program theory, we formulated context–mechanism–outcome configurations that can be used to evaluate the intervention and, more specifically, to understand what worked, for whom and under what conditions. We discuss the application of program theory development in conducting a realist evaluation. Realist evaluation embraces principles of systems thinking by providing a method for understanding how elements of the system interact with one another in producing a given outcome.

IntroductionThere has been a lot of attention on the role of human resource management interventions to improve delivery of health services in low- and middle-income countries. However, studies on this subject are few due to limited research on implementation of programmes and methodological difficulties in conducting experimental studies on human resource interventions. The authors present the protocol of an evaluation of a district-level capacity-building intervention to identify the determinants of performance of health workers in managerial positions and to understand how changes (if any) are brought about.Methods and analysisThe aim of this study is to understand how capacity building works. The authors will use realist evaluation to evaluate an intervention in Karnataka, India. The intervention is a capacity-building programme that seeks to improve management capacities of health managers at district and subdistrict levels through periodic classroom-based teaching and mentoring support at the workplace. The authors conducted interviews and reviewed literature on capacity building in health to draw out the programme theory of the intervention. Based on this, the authors formulated hypothetical pathways connecting the expected outcomes of the intervention (planning and supervision) to the inputs (contact classes and mentoring). The authors prepared a questionnaire to assess elements of the programme theory—organisational culture, self-efficacy and supervision. The authors shall conduct a survey among health managers as well as collect qualitative data through interviews with participants and non-participants selected purposively based on their planning and supervision performance. The authors will construct explanations in the form of context–mechanism–outcome configurations from the results. This will be iterative and the authors will use a realist evaluation framework to refine the explanatory theories that are based on the findings to explain and validate an improved theory on ‘what works for whom and under what conditions’.DiscussionThe scope for applying realist evaluation to study human resource management interventions in health are discussed.

BackgroundIn India, 55% of women and 69.5% of preschool children are anaemic despite national policies recommending routine iron supplementation. Understanding factors associated with receipt of iron in the field could help optimise implementation of anaemia control policies. Thus, we undertook 1) a cross-sectional study to evaluate iron supplementation to children (and mothers) in rural Karnataka, India, and 2) an analysis of all-India rural data from the National Family Health Study 2005-6 (NFHS-3).MethodsAll children aged 12-23 months and their mothers served by 6 of 8 randomly selected sub-centres managed by 2 rural Primary Health Centres of rural Karnataka were eligible for the Karnataka Study, conducted between August and October 2008. Socioeconomic and demographic data, access to health services and iron receipt were recorded. Secondly, NFHS-3 rural data were analysed. For both studies, logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with receipt of iron.ResultsThe Karnataka Study recruited 405 children and 377 of their mothers. 41.5% of children had received iron, and 11.5% received iron through the public system. By multiple logistic regression, factors associated with children's receipt of iron included: wealth (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.63 [95% CI 1.11, 6.24] for top vs bottom wealth quintile), male sex (OR 2.45 [1.47, 4.10]), mother receiving postnatal iron (OR 2.31 [1.25, 4.28]), mother having undergone antenatal blood test (OR 2.10 [1.09, 4.03]); Muslim religion (OR 0.02 [0.00, 0.27]), attendance at Anganwadi centre (OR 0.23 [0.11, 0.49]), fully vaccinated (OR 0.33 [0.15, 0.75]), or children of mothers with more antenatal health visits (8-9 visits OR 0.25 [0.11, 0.55]) were less likely to receive iron. Nationally, 3.7% of rural children were receiving iron; this was associated with wealth (OR 1.12 [1.02, 1.23] per quintile), maternal education (compared with no education: completed secondary education OR 2.15 [1.17, 3.97], maternal antenatal iron (2.24 [1.56, 3.22]), and child attending an Anganwadi (OR 1.47 [1.20, 1.80]).ConclusionIn rural India, public distribution of iron to children is inadequate and disparities exist. Measures to optimize receipt of government supplied iron to all children regardless of wealth and ethnic background could help alleviate anaemia in this population.