No abstract

Urban dwellers are at risk of heat-related mortality in the onset of climate change. In this study, future changes in heat-related mortality of elderly citizens were estimated while considering the combined effects of spatially-varying megacity’s population growth, urbanization, and climate change. The target area is the Jakarta metropolitan area of Indonesia, a rapidly developing tropical country. 1.2 × 1.2 km2 daily maximum temperatures were acquired from weather model outputs for the August months from 2006 to 2015 (present 2010s) and 2046 to 2055 (future 2050s considering pseudo-global warming of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The weather model considers population-induced spatial changes in urban morphology and anthropogenic heating distribution. Present and future heat-related mortality was mapped out based on the simulated daily maximum temperatures. The August total number of heat-related elderly deaths in Jakarta will drastically increase by 12~15 times in the 2050s compared to 2010s because of population aging and rising daytime temperatures under “compact city” and “business-as-usual” scenarios. Meanwhile, mitigating climate change (RCP 2.6) could reduce the August elderly mortality count by up to 17.34%. The downwind areas of the densest city core and the coastal areas of Jakarta should be avoided by elderly citizens during the daytime.

No abstract

Despite increasing utilization and accuracy of models to predict the future climate and hydrology at higher resolutions, urban areas are still underrepresented. A method to determining future distribution of urban parameters in accordance with the global climate and socio-ecoonomic pathways of the future is proposed. An urban growth model was used to project the expansion of urban areas in 2050 of Jakarta. From shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP), total population in the future was acquired. Using historical population distribution data, spatial distribution of population was projected until the year 2050. From empirical relationships acquired from population with nighttime lights adjustment, actual urban parameters, and GDP, futuristic urban parameters were calculated. Finally, the calculated future distribution of urban parameters was used in downscaling the future climate of Jakarta using the pseudo-global warming method.

Tingginya aktivitas perkotaan di DKI Jakarta meningkatkan emisi pencemar udara sumber antropogenik seperti NO 2 , SO 2 , CO, dan O 3. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan simulasi numerik mengenai distribusi pencemar udara di atmosfer akibat faktor meteorologi pada musim kemarau (Agustus 2011) dan musim hujan (Januari 2011) dengan simulasi numerik WRF-Chem. Input emisi simulasi berasal dari inventarisasi emisi antropogenik tahun 2011 pada penggunaan energi di sektor industri, transportasi, dan kebutuhan domestik serta pembakaran residu pertanian di Jakarta dan sekitarnya. Inventarisasi emisi yang dilakukan menunjukkan bahwa kontribusi SO 2 tertinggi dihasilkan dari sektor industri sedangkan kontribusi NO 2 dan CO tertinggi dihasilkan dari transportasi. Hasil WRF-Chem menunjukkan bahwa pola meteorologi musim kemarau memiliki perbedaan yang signifikan dengan musim hujan. Pada musim kemarau, terjadi dominasi angin lokal laut/darat yang mendistribusi pencemar udara ke arah utara (Teluk Jakarta) saat terjadi angin darat dan ke arah selatan (Jakarta Selatan dan Bogor) saat terjadi angin laut. Di musim ini, kecepatan angin rendah dan terbentuk mixing layer yang signifikan. Pada musim hujan, adanya angin permukaan akibat angin sinoptik dengan kecepatan tinggi dari arah barat dan variasinya mendistribusi pencemar ke arah timur (Jakarta Timur dan Bekasi). Kecepatan angin tinggi dan mixing layer yang terbentuk lebih rendah dibanding pada musim kemarau. Verifikasi hasil pemodelan dilakukan dengan membandingkan hasil simulasi dengan hasil observasi di stasiun pemantauan pencemaran udara DKI 2 di Kelapa Gading, Jakarta.

No abstract

Recent studies have proven the need for realistic urban representation in weather models. However, cities modeled using distributed urban parameters with updated urban parameterization are still few and limited to highly developed countries. Furthermore, real building datasets used to estimate the urban parameters are unavailable or lacking in other cities. This study was conducted to address both issues by expanding the advance weather model methodology to another megacity and utilizing global datasets to readily estimate a distribution of urban and other surface parameters. Sensitivity of the models to either real or global-estimated urban parameters was conducted; and the urban effect to a synoptic circulation over Istanbul was investigated. The simulation results for a typical summer day over Istanbul suggest that global datasets can be used as alternative to real building data for estimating distributed urban parameters.

No abstract