Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson have criticized the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and other aspects of IPCC assessments. It is claimed that the methodology is “technically unsound” because market exchange rates (MER) are used instead of purchasing power parities (PPP) and that the scenarios themselves are flawed because the GDP growth in the developing regions is too high. The response is: The IPCC SRES reviews existing literature, most of which is MER based, including that from the World Bank, IEA and USDoE. Scenarios of GDP growth are typically expressed as MER (the preferred measure for GDP growth, as opposed to PPP which is a preferred measure for assessing differences in economic welfare). IPCC scenarios did include PPP-based scenarios, which Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson have conveniently ignored. Contrary to what Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson claim, IPCC scenarios are consistent with historical data, including that from 1990 to 2000, and with the most recent near term (up to 2020) projections of other agencies. Long-term emissions are based on multiple, interdependent driving forces, and not just economic growth. Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson need to look beyond GDP. The IPCC scenarios provided information for only four world regions, and not for specific countries. Mr. Castles' and Mr. Henderson's critique is not of IPCC scenarios but of ongoing unpublished work in progress that is not part of SRES. We therefore show that Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson have focused on constructing a “problem” that does not exist. SRES scenarios are sound and the IPCC has responded seriously and conscientiously. We detail our response below in nine sections. After an introduction (Section 1), we outline the SRES methodology for measuring economic output (Section 2). Section 3 compares SRES to long-historical economic development and provides five responses to the critics. Section 4 addresses the issue of country-level economic projections even if not part of SRES. Sections 5, 6 and 7 validate the SRES scenarios by comparing them with recent trends for economic and CO2 emission growth, as well as more recent scenarios available in the literature. Section 8 refutes the argument that lower economic growth in developing countries would lower GHG emissions correspondingly. Section 9 concludes.
A computer program is developed to automatically identify the geomagnetic storms in Dst index by applying four selection criteria that minimize non-storm-like fluctuations. The program is used to identify the storms in Kyoto Dst and USGS Dst in 50 years . The identified storms (DstMin ≤ −50 nT) are used to investigate their seasonal variations. It is found that the overall seasonal variations of the storm parameters such as occurrence, average intensity (average DstMin) and average strength (average ⟨Dst MP ⟩) in both versions of Dst exhibit clear semiannual variations with equinoctial maxima and solstice minima; and the maxima and minima in intensity and strength (~±17% each) are less than those in occurrence (~±28%). Wavelet spectra of the storms reveal the existence of distinct semiannual component in four solar cycles (SCs 20-23) and weak longer and shorter-period components in some SCs. The semiannual variation observed also in the mean energy input during the main phase (MP) of the storms estimated from Dst is interpreted in terms of the (1) equinoctial mechanism based on the varying angle between the Earth-Sun line and Earth's dipole axis and (2) Russell-Mcpherron effect based on the varying angle between the GSM Z-axis and GSE Y-axis; and the yearly range of the dipole tilt angle µ (23.2°) involved in the equinoctial mechanism is found larger than the title angle θ (16.3°) involved in the RM effect.
The effects of a geomagnetic storm on the variation of the atmospheric electric field over Maitri (70°45′S, 11°44′E), Dome C (75°06′S, 123°20′E), and Vostok (78°27′S, 106°52′E) Antarctic research stations are presented in this paper. For the first time, the paper reports the simultaneous observations of the atmospheric electric field/potential gradient (PG) over the three high‐latitude stations at the Southern Hemisphere, and its associated changes due to a substorm phenomenon. PG data obtained from these three stations under fair‐weather conditions on 5 April 2010 are analyzed. The duration of geomagnetic disturbance is classified into three intervals, which contains three consecutive substorms based on the magnetic records of the Maitri station. The substorm is directly related to an enhancement of the magnetospheric convective electric field at high latitude, generally controlled by the solar wind parameters. It is found that the variation in the amplitude of PG depends on the magnetic latitude during substorm onset. During the substorm expansion phase, when the convection cell is at overhead, PG is significantly enhanced due to the downward mapping of the ionospheric horizontal electric field. The present observation demonstrated the changes on PG due to the spatial extension of the convection cell from high latitudes up to middle latitudes.
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