Risk and uncertainty are factors that construction project managers have been increasingly had to deal with. Project completion time is one of the areas where the expected time is often underestimated or shorter than the actual completion time. Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used simulation technique in modeling a process that is difficult to predict due to its random variables. This study provides a practical way to use Monte Carlo simulation to simulate a project using functions available in a spreadsheet application. A project with five activities was simulated 2000 times using minimum, maximum, and expected duration. The mean, mode, and median simulation results were then plugged into their respective precedence diagram networks to compare them. The precedence diagram computations found that mean, mode, and median project completion times were longer than the initially expected completion time. The mean, mode, and median were 50, 53, and 48 days, respectively, which were 8, 11, and 6 days longer, respectively, than the 42 days initially expected. The study showed that the Monte Carlo simulation could assist the project manager in planning a project schedule that deals with risk and uncertainty more realistically.
The liquefaction event that occurred in Petobo Village, Palu City, Central Sulawesi, was caused by the Palu earthquake on September 28th, 2018 with a magnitude of 7.4 and a depth of 10 km. This study aims to determine the characteristics of the soil and also whether the area still has the potential for liquefaction based on the Test Swedish Weight Sounding (SWS), and Cone Penetration Test (CPT). The test is carried out at a location that is the limit of the cessation of liquefaction, which has a variety of soil types. Determination of soil characteristics is carried out by laboratory tests, Sieve Analysis and Atterberg Limits. The results of laboratory testing, the soil types at point A are poorly graded sand and silty sand (SP-SM). As for the results of SWS at point D the soil with an Nsw value of more than 180.00 n/m is at a depth of 3.68 m with a Nsw value of 274.73 n/m. From the results of the CPT calculation it was found that the soil at Point E at a depth of 0.80 m – 6.40 m has potential for liquefaction and soil at a depth of 6.60. m – 8.40 m no liquefaction potential.
The 2018 earthquake that shook the city of Palu and surrounding areas with the power of 7.4 MW triggered liquefaction in several locations. Earthquakes and liquefaction that occurred caused damage to Gumbasa’s irrigation canals and some paddy fields. This study was conducted at three points in the paddy fields which 2 points located in the Soulowe village and Sidera village, District of Dolo and one is located in the Lolu village, District of Biromaru. This study aims to determine the infiltration rate in the residents’s paddy fields which have not been planted with paddy for a long time. This is because until the data retrieval performed, Gumbasa irrigation network has not functioned and still under repair. Data were collected using a Double Ring Infiltrometer measuring instrument. The results obtained from this study for constant infiltration rate of BGKn 38 = 1.27 cm/hour, BGKn 42 = 1.10 cm/hour and BGKn 51 = 0.75 cm/hour, which all three are classified as a rather slow with a constant infiltration rate ranging from 0.5 to 2 cm/hour. For the difference in fc values, BGKn 38 and BGKn 42 at 0.17 cm/hour and BGKn 42 and BGKn 51 at 0.35 cm/hour, so that BGKn 38 and BGKn 51 is 0.52 cm/hour. Meanwhile, the value of the difference f0 from the three points is BGKn 38 with BGKn 42 at 3.82 cm/hour and BGKn 42 with BGKn 51 at 4.43 cm/hour, and BGKn 38 with BGKn 51 is 0.61 cm/hour.
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