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The Myanmar peace process between the government and the ethnic armed groups has undergone some major changes since October 2016. Whereas the armed groups were previously distinguished between those that had signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in 2015 and the non-signatories, the situation is much more complicated now. The formation of the Northern Alliance in late 2016 led by the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which had previously been outside the peace process, is the most important change. This development has in turn weakened the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), which represented the nonsignatories, and has also led to the growing involvement of China in the peace process, introducing a new external dimension.

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This article examines Thai policy towards Malaysia and Myanmar in the post-Cold War period and argues that bilateral relations between Thailand and these countries have deteriorated considerably. The immediate reason for the change is the collapse of structural arrangements associated with the Cold War, in particular the Indochina Security Complex and domestic political developments in Thailand and Myanmar. Whereas a number of issues like illegal migration, ®shing and insurgency have contributed to the deteriorated relations, the situation has been reasonably well managed. Factors contributing to the stability of the situation include regular bilateral dialogue and exchanges as well as common membership in a number of multilateral fora like ASEAN, ARF, AFTA and APEC.

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The bilateral relationship between China and Myanmar is important and intricate despite being asymmetrical in China's favour. Whereas most observers regard the relationship as being heavily weighted in China's favour, Myanmar does have a fair amount of latitude within the relationship that is informed by historical, economic, and strategic considerations. The nationalism and xenophobia present in the attitudes of elite from the Myanmar military junta is both recognized and understood by China that is keen to have a stable peripheral environment. There are also important security issues such as the ethnic armies that currently have a ceasefire arrangement with the junta along the border areas that need to be resolved in a coordinated fashion to prevent negative spillage into China. In light of such special idiosyncratic and terrain considerations, Myanmar wields relative independence within this asymmetrical relationship.